Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017

The USD/CAD pair has been exhibiting a very disappointing price action ever since it was able to test its range highs at 1.3800 points during the start of this month. The currency pair has been suffering from the repercussions brought about by the greenback’s weakness and the strength of the loonie which was mostly due to an oil price surge. This oil price increase was able to cover up the actual occurrences within the Canadian economy and has provided enough leverage for the loonie to advance, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been consistently dropping value during the last two weeks.

As of the moment, the currency pair is now within a very critical region of 1.3500 points, where it continues to look very weak. The weakness of the greenback has been the dominant market trend as of the moment, with the dollar getting adversely affected by Trump’s political woes, which in turn has affected the US economy as well as its monetary policy. The market had initially priced in a rate hike this coming June, but with the recent slew of dismal events, it looks like the market’s players might have to put off this interest rate hike at least for now. In addition, the rising oil prices has helped the loonie to retain its positive image amidst Canadian banking concerns, wherein the majority of Canadian banks have been given the thumbs-down by ratings agencies. The loonie strength has also helped to offset the concerns surrounding the HCG and the housing sector.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases coming from both the US and the Canadian economy, although some Fed officials will be making statements today with regards to the US monetary policy. All these are expected to add downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair and cause the pair to test its support levels.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: May 24, 2017

The EURUSD attempted to move through the higher region on Tuesday, however, failed to maintain its gain upon reaching the level 1.1268. When the profit taking started the pair was pushed beneath the 1.12 handle.

Meanwhile, the stronger report of GDP and sentiment data buoyed the EUR/USD and the yields turned up in Europe as relating to its American counterparts. Moreover, the PMI readings kept unchanged in the month of May, as the German nation lead the charge that reflects towards a strong growth.

The major pair touched the higher high as it eclipses the prior day high using 5 pips. The resistance is found at 1.1299 level close to November 8 highs and in case the level will be broken, it would lead to testing 1.1365 region near its August highs in 2016.

The support entered the mark 1.1603 around the 10-day moving average. Momentum is slow-moving, seeing the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) print in the black together with a descending trajectory that drives towards the consolidation.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 24, 2017

The Australian currency against the U.S. dollar broke above the 0.75 level but was also reversed soon after. If the price breaks lower than the 0.7450 region, the price would further decline. This is also similar for the long-term trades.

The gold market directly influences the pair including the risk appetite for these trades. However, it seems that the gold market is not performing well. The raw material trades from Australia supplied within Asia is also falling since there is low demand for copper and iron which are the fundamental trades of the country.

In a long-term trend, it seems that the market sustains the current trading condition. Its downtrend could attain up to 0.70 level for long-term. If the price breaks higher than the 0.7525 region, it could reach its way about the 0.7750 level for a longer term.

However, reaching the said level won’t be easy. Although, the market usually change position in a bullish pattern and makes it more complicated when the market worries. This is what anticipated to happen when the price soars that makes pullbacks not surprising anymore. The uptrend line is noticeable on the hourly chart and a break lower than the 0.7450 level would bring the price down with an increase in bearish pressure.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017

The USD/CAD pair has been projected to be highly dependent on the state of oil prices as well as the OPEC meeting held yesterday, and in fact, the loonie skyrocketed in value as the OPEC meeting concluded yesterday’s meeting on a somewhat dismal note as far as the markets were concerned.

The market had initially hoped that the OPEC members would approve an extension of the production cuts since the majority of them are expecting deeper production cuts in the future. However, what the OPEC members did was to extend the production cut deal for another 9 months, with both Iran and Libya given an approval to maintain its current status quo. This turned out to be a huge disappointment for the market in general, and this caused oil prices to drop after a large selloff occurred. This was then especially unfavorable for the Canadian dollar, particularly for the Canadian economy as its fate relies on oil prices. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair has reverted by 80 pips as the loonie starts to drop in value. The currency pair was also propped up even more by the dollar strength and now the pair is back at its support-turned-resistance level of 1.3500 points. The market will now be monitoring how this pair closes down this week’s session since if it manages to close down at over 1.3500 points, then this is an indicator that the bulls have regained control of the pair and the USD/CAD could possibly be poised for more increases. On the other hand, if the pair closes down at under 1.3500 points, then this means that the bears are now dominating the pair and the market might have to brace themselves for more selling at least in the short-term.

The US economy will be releasing its durable goods data and its Preliminary GDP data within the day, although traders are advised to sit back and wait for the session to close down before making any significant moves.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017

The strength of the greenback has been the dominant market trend during the previous trading session. In addition, the bulls of the GBP/USD pair are also having a hard time with regards to keeping the value of the cable pair afloat, which is seen on how the bulls had repeatedly attempted and failed to break through 1.3030 points even though the USD has clearly dropped in value. This development shows just how the bears are slowly gaining the upper hand with regards to taking control of the cable pair.

But on the bright side, the drop in the cable pair’s value was not as much of a crash as initially expected since the pair’s drop has been somewhat slow and steady. But then again the corrections of the pair is now starting to get more significant, while its reversions are becoming more and more shallow, which is an indication that the pair’s bears are indeed taking over the currency pair. The GBP/USD pair was unable to even reach the 1.3000 range as the greenback starts to regain more strength due to the market re-pricing the interest rate hike next month.

For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the Preliminary GDP data and the durable goods data from the US, while the British economy is not scheduled to have any economic releases for today. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to remain under pressure for the entirety of today’s trading session.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017

The Euro against the British pound had a very choppy trading during the Thursday session as the market is attempting to push the price higher which could eventually break later on. There are also some pullbacks seen in the short-term which supports the current trend and gather enough impetus and volume to reach higher levels. If the price breaks higher than the 0.8675 region, the current trend will move upward reaching the 0.88 level that is relevant for long-term as shown in the charts.

Those reversals would gain more appeal to the buyers as it closes near the 0.86 support level which was supportive in the past. There’s an option to wait for a breakout first to lift it higher which implies bullishness in the trend which is beneficial for buyers.

The market is choppy influenced by the two economies and commentaries from both countries bringing a lot of noise in the market. Yet, the trend remains resilient as it is directed upwards although there are pullbacks every now and then. If the price breaks lower than the 0.8550 region, the market is anticipated to roll over. This is most probably because of major events which are usually unexpectedly fast when it happen. Overall, the buyers seem to dominate the market.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 29, 2017

The British pound paired against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday trading session following the release of election polls much tighter than expected in Britain. Everybody expects the political route the way forward when it comes to leaving the European Union still leaves some doubt in the minds of the people.

The pair is usually sensitive to risk appetite that worsens the selling pressure. As the price breaks through the 143 level, the price would decline much lower towards the 142 handle as the market reaches to the support below. If the price surges from here, this would open more selling opportunities.

Traders should monitor the global risk appetite including the stock market, futures market and the condition of the British government and its currency, as these would affect the pair. As of now, the pair is moving downtrend searching for a significant level at 1.2750.

If the pair is able to stay in the upper region, the current trend could be reversed to find support below. Alternately, the price could decline towards the next significant support at 140 handle. Buyer should look to the long-term charts before placing orders. Overall, the market will be highly volatile and traders might want to consider major pairs related to the British currency for a faster turn around.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 29, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar has had a flat trading in early Friday but when the buyers returned, the price rose towards the 0.71 handle and above. Short-term pullbacks offer value in the market as the market tries to reach higher levels.

The 0.70 level gives off massively supportive until the price breaks lower which makes it complicated selling. Buyers will proceed with going long as the market is open climb higher although the pair is still involved with high risks. It is anticipated that the pair will most likely decline from here onwards that makes the pair more susceptible to risks.

There is a strong upward pressure for this pair and volatility would increase even more. The New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to the overall commodity market that makes is important to monitor the commodity market not necessarily a certain commodity market.

There is high volatility in the market which will reflect in trading this pair. With the political concerns from the Washington, D.C., the pair is expected to be influenced despite its almost daily occurrence. Hence, traders should still be cautious that makes short-term trades more advisable to trade to make through the current problems concerning this pair.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 29, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session. It reached the lowest level of 110.80. If it bounced back, this will signal a bullish trend but this would not be easy to attain as there is high-risk appetite especially for this pair. The 110 level gives off a massive support but is the pair breaks lower, the next level would be at 108 region at a quicker pace because there is a still remaining gap that has not been filled.

In the long-term, this pair will most likely go higher although it may take some time since the 112.50 is strongly resistive. A break higher than this region would be beneficial for scalpers to take advantage of bulls interested in the U.S. dollar.

Traders of this pair should monitor the S&P 500 index as this would have a big influence to the pair. If the index rises, this pair follows. Moreover, the chances for a Fed rate hike puts a bullish pressure for the pair. If it did not take place, it might be a problem for the pair although it is most likely that this would happen with its stature at stake.

Pullbacks every now and then offer long-term opportunities but for short-term, this gives off bearish volatility/ This could persist for some time especially with the major events concerning geopolitical problems occurring from Europe and the U.S.

Overall, the pair moves in an uptrend from 110.23 level and a decline from 112.13 will indicate a correction. It is expected to rise again following the correction towards the 113.50 level. The near-term resistance is found at 111.70 and a break to this level would mean a continuation of the uptrend. On the other hand, the support region is positioned at 110.80 and 110.23 and a break from these levels would push the price back again from 114.36 level.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.

What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

In a sea of otherwise very inactive major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair seems to be the only pair which has gained significant volatility during yesterday’s trading session. The cable pair shot up by over 40 pips in spite of a market holiday across several locations throughout the world such as the US, UK, and China. The lack of market activity yesterday gave the pair’s traders an opportunity to induce a bounce in the pair although it was unable to offset the 150-pip crash of the cable pair during the session last Friday. In spite of this recent reversal, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain trading in a very weak manner as a lot of economic factors seem to be going against the sterling pound at least for the time being.

Members of the ruling political party in Scotland have recently outlined the possibility of a Scottish referendum if ever they get reinstated in the Scottish government. But then again there have been recent rumors swirling around with regards to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, specifically on how the negotiations will pan out once the snap elections in June come to a close. In addition, the results of the recent opinion polls are showing that Theresa May lacked the expected lead in the upcoming snap elections, which puts May in danger since anything less than a landslide victory for the UK PM will make this particular risk of hers in order to establish herself in the international scene a failure. The GBP/USD pair is also currently struggling to surpass 1.3030 points, and all of these factors have turned against the cable pair and has put a significant amount of downward pressure on the pair.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy although the US will be releasing its PCE data, which will be closely monitored by the market as this will be indicating whether the June rate hike will indeed push through or otherwise. If this data disappoints the market, then this will not bade well for the GBP/USD pair.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

The USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode as the market lacked significant volatility due to market holidays in China, US, and the UK. The loonie remains trading under the very important trading range of 1.3500 points, mostly due to a steadying in oil prices in addition to a strong greenback value.

The currency pair broke through 1.3500 points last week after a surge in oil prices. Although the oil bulls were very disappointed with regards to the results of the recently-concluded OPEC meeting, the loonie received some well-needed pressure from this drop in oil prices, thereby triggering the USD/CAD pair to revert to 1.3500 points and closed down last week at just under this critical trading level. The CAD is also currently being propped up by a series of very positive data from the Canadian economy, with this economic improvement getting some acknowledgement from the Bank of Canada in its rate statement during the past week. In fact, the BoC has already decided to put its rates on hold instead of implementing a rate cut due to this consistent improvement in the country’s economic state, which could then lead to a possible rate hike if the country’s economy continues to be positive.

For today’s session, the US economy will be releasing its PCE data which is expected to clarify the country’s inflation status in addition to shedding some light on whether the Fed will be indeed implementing a rate hike next month. If the PCE comes out as negative, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly correct further towards 1.3400 points.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The Australian currency had slightly decline amid Tuesday trades, however, met a support around 0.74 mark to bounce back and climb upwards. An ability to cut through above the 0.7450 region is highly important. The resumption of the bullish pressure will prompt the market to advanced towards the area above 0.75, which is previously a significant resistance.

The rally is expected to run out within a short period of time, in case the gold surge considering a “risk on” rally. Therefore, the market has to continue trend upwards.

The gold markets appeared to be a safe place to get involved with. When gold was bought as a fear trade there is a tendency that Aussie will not follow. Nevertheless, a positive feeling towards the markets will help the AUDUSD to attempt a higher move.

The AUD is starting to gain strength, but the Kiwi appeared to be much stronger as it drives forward. Forecast says, the favor should remain in the seat of the New Zealand dollar, but there are predictions that both commodity currencies will go through similar directions.

A break down under the 0.74 range would indicate a negative signal and caused the Australian dollar to plunged lower.

Alternatively, the pair is projected to experience volatility, yet this is not new to this pair since the market always run in circles. Volatility awaits upon moving forward, for that reason you should look out on your stop losses.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017

The national currency of Britain weakened amid Tuesday trading, however, it had a significant rebound from the area 141.80 reaching the 143 handle. A break over the daily highs would direct the market in a higher position, as it may reach 144 level without plenty of issues.

Generally, the Sterling holds a significant amount of reversal throughout the day since the Cable further exhibited active signs. This could probably be a correction for the oversold condition where the GBP sees itself, after the election polling it became tighter exceeding its expectations in the past. Moreover, the figures decreased inclined with the conservative administration. Having said that, the uptrend will resume eventually, hence buying is highly preferred on the gap above the highest.

Remember that the pairs relative to Japanese yen appeared to very sensitive to risk. This could be considered as one of the most delicate pairs, the simultaneous rally of the stock market is a big help that could move 100 pips in an instant.

Either way, a cut through underneath 142.50 region would allow the market to touch 142 handle once again.

The daily candle begins to display a bullish stance which signals that buyers will return, nevertheless, it could be best that you’ll wait for the market to reveal hints to initiate the buying, as a means to safeguard your account against an extensive volatility.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

The EUR/USD pair looks poised to make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.

The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.

For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017

The Euro against the British pound was highly volatile during the Wednesday session. It is being in tested in the upper channel and a pullback was seen reaching the opening for the day. The market is attempting to gain sufficient impetus to break higher than the 0.88 level followed by 0.90 level.

In the long-term, this pair seems to be much stronger although there is a lot of noise found in the upper channel causing the choppiness of the market. The market might move slower especially with various major reports from the European Union and Britain. Same goes for Brussels and London which will be the center of attention and this market can be easily affected by these outside forces.

It won’t be long before this pair rallies upward and it is advisable to either buy after a breakout or be more careful and wait on the sidelines. Selling might be more difficult for this pair neither placing a short-term orde. However, a move lower than the 0.86 handle is a good thing although it seems that the buyers dominate participants but might now last in the current condition of the market.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.

This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 2, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar did not have a good trading session on Thursday. It breaks at the 0.74 level followed by a rebound towards the 0.7420 region. Since then, the market declined and broke to a fresh new low. Currently, the pair is depreciating and makes it more vulnerable to further decline especially since the jobs data will come out today.

If the jobs data met the expectations, then this will most likely push the currency lower towards the 0.73 handle. However, if the pair moves in the upper channel then this would open opportunities to buy this pair especially if it breaks higher than the 0.7475 region. Although, we cannot be certain of now if this would occur since the market is still undecided on which direction to choose.

The next target for this pair is 0.73 level with the tendency to move forward which makes it more favorable for selling. The market already anticipates this and it will be good to follow so.
It seems that the currency is having a difficult time while the New Zealand dollar is performing better. Even so, traders still opt for the Aussie but traders should be cautious in buying this pair in the current low levels.

Overall the pair is sold-off by traders and it is reasonable to move along with this move. However, if this pair opens for the 0.73 region, this will push the price to lower levels immediately.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 2, 2017

The Kiwi dollar declined in the day during Thursday trade while testing the mark 0.7050. Despite the choppiness of the market, the New Zealand currency have the possibility to beat the Australian dollar. It does not mean that the market will establish an optimistic stance, rather it will become more resilient. The market will search the level below 0.70 because this holds a nice large figure, however, the release of US employment figures on Friday involves plenty of noise.
The market will found the resistance on top of the 0.71 handle and the rally will soon fade away because the mentioned region seems resistive. As indicated on the higher level of the chart, some type of channel are trying to develop.

The NZDUSD is not easy to deal with because it is the least liquid among major pair and when the announcement is made, it would likely to have a violent move. With this, it is suggested to steer clear from the commodity-linked pair as this could lead you to pain if you did not take proper caution. The ability to break down under 0.70 region would break down significantly. It signals a longer-term indicator, either way, it could toggle continually moving a gradual ascending grind.

As the market maintain a choppy stance, lots of opportunities were also offered.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 5, 2017

The GBPUSD declined on Friday and face through some volatility as the U.S. employment figures released with a lower than anticipated results.

The market now appeared to hover below the 1.29 handle considered as a major level. The ability to break on top of the said region would lead the market towards 1.3050 area which provided a significant resistance.

Buying on the dips remain to be the most suitable way in playing the market beneath 1.2850 that has been offering an amount of support. Meanwhile, a break over 1.29 range would trigger a continuous higher movement. In the long term, buyers will still get involved and show further strength sooner or later.

Headline risk could still remain since concerns regarding British exit keep forging ahead. This might influence the sterling in any moment. Ultimately, the pair can find a bottom upon staying beyond the level 1.2750.

Moreover, the built-in bid resumes in regards to the GBP. An attempt to move ahead the 1.3450 handle should be done. However, lots of issues and concerns surrounds the British economy, therefore it may take some time to reach the target. Selling is ruled out except when we cut through down the 1.2750 area.