Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | weekly

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2015.01.26 :Forex Technical Analysis: Multi-year lows reached. Further downside action expected

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the euro suffered great losses against most of its peers as the ECB decided the economy is in need of more stimulus than originally anticipated. The amount they settled on is 60 billion euro/month until the end of 2016.

Technical Outlook
Without a doubt last week was controlled by the bears and this week we expect to see further downside movement. The low at 1.1114 will offer the first potential support while potential resistance sits at 1.1450; both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic show a severe oversold condition on a daily chart and this makes way for some bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook
A German Business Climate survey is released Monday, showing the level of optimism among business owners, regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Tuesday the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are announced, followed later in the day by a Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the greenback as the Fed will announce the interest rate and a FOMC Statement is released, outlining the reasons which influenced the rate decision; it also can contain hints about future monetary policy.

German inflation data comes out Thursday as the Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released. In light of recent events, we might see some changes in inflation numbers and this will translate into strong market moves. Friday the Euro Zone CPI comes out, offering a view on inflation in the entire Euro area. The last event of the week comes out the same day in the form of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product which as we know is an economy’s main gauge of performance and can have a hefty impact on the currency.

GBP/USD

The pair finally broke the horizontal channel inside which it was confined lately as the dollar extended its gains against the British Pound. The break was partly generated by MPC members’ change of stance regarding the interest rate – this time all members voted to keep rates unchanged.

Technical Outlook
If the break of 1.5035 can be sustained by the bears, we consider the next destination to be the support at 1.4830; otherwise the bulls will probably take price into the resistance at 1.5260. If this resistance will be touched, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will contribute to the strength of the level because by the time price climbs, the MA will probably descend in close vicinity of 1.5260, creating a confluence zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will announce Monday the number of new Mortgage Approvals, offering insights into the British house market. Tuesday the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and Friday the Net Lending to Individuals is announced, showing the change in the value of loans issued to consumers. The indicator offers hints about future consumer spending and consumer confidence.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

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2015.02.02 :Forex Technical Analysis: Fate of the Downtrend Decided by American Jobs Data

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was the first bullish one in a long time. The Fed mentioned patience regarding a potential rate hike and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product disappointed, thus the appeal of the U.S. Dollar somewhat diminished last week.

Technical Outlook
The downtrend is still intact but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) are starting to move upwards, after a long period they’ve spent in oversold area. This suggests that we might see another bullish week with the first target located at 1. 1450 (1.1460), followed by 1.1640. As mentioned before, the downtrend is still intact (although overextended) and this means that another encounter with 1.1100 support zone is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
American manufacturing data is released Monday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI which acts as a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector. Tuesday is a slow day for economic releases and Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change comes out, offering hints about the Government-issued data which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday the U.S. Trade Balance comes out, showing the difference between the value of imported and exported goods; a negative number means that more goods were imported than exported and this can have a negative impact on the greenback but often this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The week’s most important data comes out Friday: the U.S. Non Farm Employment Change. This is widely considered the most important jobs related indicator and shows how many new jobs were created in the analyzed month. A higher number of jobs suggests a thriving economy and indicates that consumer spending will increase in the near future.

GBP/USD

The Pound – Dollar pair continued to move in a range last week and although price closed lower than it opened, neither bulls nor bears made significant advances.

Technical Outlook
The pair is confined between 1.5260 resistance and 1.4950 support but price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a downtrend is still in place, although it’s currently stalling. A break of support would make 1.4830 the immediate target and to the upside 1.5260 combined with the 50 period EMA will offer strong resistance; however, the pair’s direction will be strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data scheduled for release this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMIs come out Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from each sector and usually act as leading indicators of economic health so better values are beneficial for the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event will probably have a small impact. The pair will be directly and strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data.
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

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2015.02.03 :Forex News: Price confined in tight ranges. Breakouts expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: American Manufacturing data disappointed yesterday and the US Dollar lost its appeal. The pair climbed but price action was choppy for most of the day. The release of the Spanish Unemployment numbers was rescheduled for today.

Technical Outlook
The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is confined in a very tight range, being caped to the downside by 1.1290 support and by 1.1365 to the upside. Lately 1.1365 acts as short term resistance and we anticipate a bounce lower, with the first target being 1.1290. However, price is just moving sideways and this kind of movement doesn’t offer enough hints about immediate direction. Since the main downtrend is intact, we have a bearish bias.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:00 am GMT the Spanish Unemployment numbers are released and expected to show a change of 83.4K compared with last month’s -64.4. Initially the release was scheduled for yesterday and the forecast value was also a lot different. This might not affect the indicator’s impact but use caution nonetheless.

GBP/USD

The pair showed some sharp reversals yesterday, especially on the lower time frames. British Manufacturing data came out close to analysts’ expectations and this added to the choppy movement.

Technical Outlook
Price came very close to 1.5100 resistance before reversing and moving below 1.5035 support. Although this support is not decisively broken, the short term bias is bearish because the pair bounced at resistance and is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price doesn’t move above 1.5035, the first target is represented by 1.4950.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT; the anticipated value is 56.9 (57.6 previous) and higher numbers will probably strengthen the Pound as this survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

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2015.02.09 :Forex Technical Analysis: Resistance tested. Bounce or break scenarios in play

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action was confined in a range, with all daily moves reversed completely the next day. American jobs data which surpassed analyst’s expectations puts the latest momentum in the hands of sellers.

Technical Outlook
All bullish moves were capped by 1.1500 resistance zone and all bearish moves encountered strong support around 1.1300. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic moved out of oversold territory and this means that now further moves south can occur easier than before. However, before that can happen, the Stochastic should cross downwards, agreeing with the Relative Strength Index. A break of 1.1300 would open the door for another encounter with the zone around 1.1100, while a break of 1.1500 would generate a move into 1.1640 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday is the first day of the G20 Meetings which take place in Istanbul. Members of the 20 member states meet in order to discuss a range of economic and political issues and this can have an effect on the currency market so we might see some strong movement. Tuesday the meetings continue but generally the day is calm and no major indicators are released.

Wednesday the Eurogroup Meetings take place and are attended by key personalities from the Euro area, including the President of the European Central Bank. Again, volatility can be present, depending on the matters discussed.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales; the indicator tracks changes in levels of sales made at retail outlets and is considered to have a high-impact on the US Dollar as retail sales are an important part of consumer spending. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is released and the University of Michigan will make public their Consumer Sentiment survey. Both indicators have the potential to be strong market movers, especially if the actual values will be different than analysts’ expectations.

GBP/USD

The pair had a bullish week on the back of positive economic data coming out of the United Kingdom. Some of the Pound’s gains were erased later in the week when the U.S. Jobs report was released.

Technical Outlook
The pair was in need of a bullish pullback such as the one seen last week since the downtrend seemed exhausted and new lows weren’t printed in a relatively long while. The current level at 1.5260, combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will offer good resistance and in fact rejection was already seen so we expect bearish moves once the Stochastic crosses downwards. First major support is located at 1.4950, while resistance sits at 1.5750 but we could have a slow week, with neither target being reached.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out and will be followed later in the day by the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. Although this is just an estimated value of the GDP, it usually has a strong impact on the Pound because it usually has high accuracy.

Thursday the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report which contains an outlook for inflation and economic performance over the next 2 years. BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference the same day, discussing the contents of the Report and this is likely to be the day’s main market mover. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

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2015.02.16 :Forex Technical Analysis: Broken resistance marks the end of sideways movement?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the economic data which came out of the United States was disappointing and this allowed the Euro to climb against the US Dollar but the week had only one day when the pair moved strongly and overall price action was slow.

Technical Outlook
Price is still confined in a tight range created by 1.1300 support and 1.1500 resistance. Considering the fact that last week only one day had decent movement and price was mostly flat, we expect a clean break-out this week but the direction will depend mostly on the fundamental aspect. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average is still angled downwards and price is trading below it but this doesn’t exclude a bullish breakout so for the week ahead keep an eye on 1.1500. A break of this level will probably generate an extended move into 1.1640 while a break of 1.1300 will make 1.1100 the next weekly target.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place and US banks will be closed, celebrating Presidents’ Day so there are increased chances of irregular volatility. Tuesday the main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts, focused on a 6 month outlook regarding German economic growth.

Wednesday is an important day for the US Dollar as the FOMC Meeting Minutes come out, offering insights into Fed’s latest meeting and possibly hints about future monetary policy direction. Thursday economic releases are scarce, with U.S. Manufacturing data being the only notable indicator, while Friday, France and Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMIs which act as leading indicators of economic health.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England increased economic growth forecasts and this coupled with weak U.S. data generated a rally above resistance. However, for the better part of the week price ranged.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved above 1.5260 resistance and above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average, making the medium-term outlook bullish. We anticipate a climb into 1.5550 resistance zone but a break of this level is less likely considering that the pair is in a clear downtrend. If during the week the Relative Strength Index will reach overbought levels, the chances of bearish moves will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
British inflation data comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change which will show how many people applied for unemployment related social help. The same day the Official Bank Rate votes come out, showing if some of the MPC members changed their stance on the interest rate value. The final British release of the week comes Friday in the form of the Retail Sales; the indicator shows the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets and is considered a high impact release.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

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2015.02.23 :Forex Technical Analysis: Price action driven by the testimonies of high-ranking officials

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week Greece and the Eurogroup finally found a solution to the debt problem, although it seems to be just a short term fix. Surprisingly enough, the market did not react strongly to the news and the pair didn’t manage to break its range

Technical Outlook
Monday more discussions related to the Greek debt issue are expected so the market can still become volatile and we recommend caution. The horizontal channel created between 1.1500 and 1.1300 is still the most important technical pattern for short term price action and a breakout is imminent; once this happens, the pair can find support at 1.1100 or resistance at 1.1640. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average will also offer some resistance but considering price’s latest behaviour, if we see a breakout, this could easily move past the EMA. Our view at the moment is neutral anticipating a break of support or resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s important event is the release of the German IFO Business Climate which in a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic conditions. Its large sample is what makes it important and usually triggers a strong impact. Tuesday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This is part of a 2-day testimony which will continue Wednesday.

ECB President Mario Draghi will also testify Wednesday before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. Both the testimonies of Yellen and Draghi are considered high-impact events and strong volatility is expected. Thursday the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released, showing fluctuations in inflation and at the same time we will find out the Durable Goods Orders change.

Friday two more important indicators are released: the German CPI and the U.S. Prelim Gross Domestic Product. The former shows the state of German inflation, while the latter is considered the main gauge of U.S. economic performance, thus strong movement is likely to be generated.

GBP/USD

The pair remained above its 50 day Exponential Moving Average but no major advances were made. The strongest moves occurred when British employment data came out better than anticipated but the rest of the week was rather slow.

Technical Outlook
We expect the current move to continue until the zone around 1.1550 is reached, but the bulls seem to lack strength and the Stochastic oscillator has already touched its 80 level, indicating overbought. This could mean that if price crosses the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside, it could easily go through the support located around 1.5260, opening the door for an extended move towards 1.4950.Although price action was bullish last week, we favour the downside, especially if 1.5550 is touched and the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought, agreeing with the Stochastic.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approvals Wednesday. The indicator offers insights into the British house market but its impact fluctuates depending on the difference between the anticipated number and the actual one. The Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released Thursday showing the anticipated value of the British GDP; although this is an estimated number, the accuracy is usually high and so is the impact on the Pound. Of course, the U. S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

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2015.02.24 :Forex News: Breakout imminent. Speeches and testimonies hold the headlines

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value below analysts’ expectations and the euro weakened as a result. However the pair remained in ranging mode and neither support nor resistance was broken.

Technical Outlook
A breakout is imminent but the direction remains uncertain; the important levels for short-term price action remain 1.1440 as resistance and 1.1270 as support. A break of either of them will mark the end of the ranging period but since price came in close vicinity of support and couldn’t break it, we expect a bounce higher which can find resistance at 1.1440. However, until a clear break occurs, our view remains neutral on this pair.

Fundamental Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak today at the official unveiling of the 20 Euro banknote. The event takes place in Frankfurt at 2:00 pm GMT and is followed at 3:00 pm GMT by Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony is likely to generate more volatility, depending on her altitude and answers. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to show a drop to 99.6 from the previous 102.9. Consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending so a higher than anticipated value will strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British CBI Realized Sales posted a surprisingly low value of 1 while analysts’ expected 42. This initially generated Pound weakness but a remarkable reversal occurred soon after, without any apparent reason.

Technical Outlook
After bouncing at 1.5420 the pair headed into the support located at 1.5340 as expected, but here a near perfect bounce occurred, followed by a climb of more than 100 pips. Currently the bulls are trying to break 1.5460 and if they succeed, the door will be open for an extended move into 1.5540 resistance. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, a fact which may hinder further bullish movement for the time being. The first potential support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the British Inflation Report Hearings take place. Bank of England Governor and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on economic growth and inflation. The hearings last a few hours during which volatility may increase and sharp moves can occur so caution is recommended. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​