Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea_ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 5, 2017

The EURUSD moved through an upward direction on Friday after the release of weak data on employment report. The U.S yields further weakened as prices ascended at a faster pace compared with the European bonds. This made the euro lure attraction of investors prior the ECB meeting scheduled next week.

The European producer price manifested stronger figures, beating expectation which paved the way for a higher rate on the pair. The pair had broken out on the back of a bull flag formation which serves as a pause to refresh higher.

The prices increased by 1.1282 region just shy of 1.1299 close to November 8 highs. The next resistance target is found at the mark 1.1365 near the highs of August 2016. The support reached 1.1206 area around the 10-day moving average.

The momentum came in neutral while the MACD histogram printed nearby the zero-index level whereas the index appeared to be in a flat trajectory suggesting for a consolidation.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pair’s bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pair’s dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.

During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comey’s testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pair’s range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.

For today’s session, there are now major releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of today’s session.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 6, 2017

The New Zealand broke in the lower channel during the Monday session. Later, the trend bounced off to fill the gap then declined again. There is massive support found in the 0.71 below which triggered the market to rise again as it reached the former break level. Currently, the market is attempting to move higher as it gains momentum to reach the 0.7150 region which would hint a bullish sentiment.

The market could also retreat from this level towards the 0.71 handle once more. Overall, there will be high volatility and persist for some time in the market since the New Zealand dollar is relative to commodities market which always changes. Hence, the currency is expected to be traded with a choppy environment.

Buying on the lows is advisable for this pair and is not surprising for them to return as the trend moves in a downtrend. However, shorting this pair may not be the best move. If the price breaks lower than the 0.71 handle, the next move would be to go downward toward the 0.7050 level.

Nevertheless, the market will be very choppy driven by geopolitical risks and in consideration of its sensitivity opting the U.S. dollars as a safety currency while the kiwi being the riskier one in this pair. Volatility is also anticipated to persist in either direction it goes.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2017

The NZDUSD rallied amid trades on Tuesday and broke the level on top of 0.7150 smoothly. The Kiwi dollar continued to search for buyers on dips and tend to handle some pullback as an opportunity to increase rate.

The market tried to touch the region above 0.72, en route 0.75 afterwards. As shown in the chart, the area around 0.71 handle provides a lot of support and regarded to be the floor of the market in the near-term uptrend. The commodity space continues to weigh on the market and the NZD seems to be the “barometer” towards the overall sentiment of futures trading. Watch closely for the commodity because it could possibly show the way.

It could be a good move to buy dips moving forward because it suits the current status of the New Zealand currency. Selling remains impossible as far as we breach under the 0.71 mark. A successful break down prompts the market to reach the range below 0.7050 which is very supportive previously, along with the 0.70 region. In any case, the market remains to be volatile, however, the moving averages came in reliable, particularly the 48-hour MA shown in green color, hence it should offer further buying opportunities.

The volatility driven market persists, but the late impulsivity indicates that buyers begin to develop more confident as it moves ahead. Moreover, the dips will provide value which is an advantage to market participants.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2017

The GBPUSD had attempted to rally yesterday, however, retreated to the level 1.2950 to return underneath the 1.29 handle. In the past few sessions, the market appeared to have a little bit of overall bullish pressure, waiting for the results of UK elections expected tomorrow. In this case, the market will probably experience choppiness and unprepared to conduct a significant move yet. Short-term volatility is predicted along with some choppy spots but a general ascending momentum should also be anticipated. It does not mean that a pull cannot be accomplished, it only implies that longer-term charts and the range below 1.2750 should offer massive support that will surely lure the attention of the majority of market participants.

After the session on Friday, the long-term outlook for the pair shall be available as it could be very difficult from this moment and the next.

Buying the dips remains to be the best option for the Cable but the dips showed to be somewhat steep. You should have got small positions as of now and after the election results in order to acquire lesser damage that might suddenly arise.

Markets have lots of speculation regarding the election decision, therefore a cool level head should be maintained as this is crucial for the following sessions.

In the longer-term, the pair might break the 1.3050 mark as it allows the market move higher freely, or maybe reach its long-term target found at the region 1.3450.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 9, 2017

The events happened yesterday unexpectedly wrought a slight impact against the USD/CAD, as well as to other currency pairs. However, there are predictions that it would be an explosive day yesterday due to incidents lined up while traders work late at night to secure a safe position and to keep their trades well but everything turned out to be less impressive and unexciting.

The said events are as follows; the decision of ECB to hold its rates paired with the announcement on inflation targets and increasing growth outlook, though it is obviously has nothing to do with the pair. Next is the testimony of Comey after he accused US President Trump with lots of things.

These scenarios were unable to move the dollar and any movement only indicates an insignificant strengthening of the greens that lead the USDCAD near 1.35.

In relation to the Canadian dollar, BOC Governor Poloz delivered a speech expressing his delight about the current condition of their economy. He also stated that he was comfortable regarding the price trend in the housing industry. The neutral tone strike by Poloz reflected towards the commodity-linked pair which continuously trades in a steady and unspecified direction.

Later this day, the Canadian employment figures is anticipated to be release that would likely cause volatility. If the report showed a stronger result, it would help the pair to reach the lows of its tight range close to the 1.3450 level.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017

The British currency has an insignificant performance during Monday opening as the Europeans came back from behind. There is a gapped in the level 1.2750 and broke down towards the 1.2650 region. The market persists to show a massive bullish pressure considering that uncertainties wrought from the election will probably influence the sterling in general.
With this, the rallies could possibly provide some selling opportunities, however, a break on top of 1.28 region signals a bullish stance. And the market will move near above the 1.29 handle. Volatility is highly expected because of the trends influenced by headlines.

The sell rallies will continue on short-term charts which give indicators of exhaustion.
In case the bearish pressure remains, the market will come under 1.25 handle and keep on struggling because of indecisions on the United Kingdom along with the interest rate hikes to be implemented by the United States later this year

There are few reasons that GBPUSD will keep to struggle and decline. A slice over 1.28 handle will favor for a buying position.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

The GBP/USD pair was finally able to make some significant headway amidst a highly volatile trading session yesterday after suffering from the adverse effects brought about by the results of the UK snap elections. As the Conservative bloc failed to get the number of majority they initially aimed for, this created uncertainties and risks within the market and has put the cable pair under severe downward pressure.

But yesterday’s session served as a breather for the GBP/USD pair as uncertainties within the country’s government formation are now starting to get sorted out, thus enabling the cable pair to push past towards 1.2700 points. The talks between the DUP and the Conservatives has so far produced positive results, and it seems now that this alliance will be maintained at least until the Conservatives need to work on several issues, including government formations. One such issue is the looming Brexit talks, with Theresa May staying defiant and believing that she will be able to push through with the Brexit talks in spite of political turmoil and calls for her resignation from her current post as UK Prime Minister. However, May still has to prepare herself as she will possible be faced by several hostile EU leaders who will want to take advantage of May’s position as well as the UK’s current international standing. In addition, Scotland is again on the brink of instigating another independence referendum, and all of these risks are expected to weigh down on the sterling pound both in the medium term and long term.

For today’s session, the market will be focusing on the Fed’s next move with regards to its planned interest rate hike. If the Fed pushes through with its rate hike, then the market will be looking at the FOMC statement next in order to look for clues with regards to the schedule of the next rate hike. If the statement comes out as bullish, then the dollar could further increase in value and the sterling pound might again drop and could possibly revert to its range lows.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 16, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved unsteadily during Thursday session followed by a rally as the market sees a “risk on” environment. For now, it looks like the market will remain unpredictable and the market reaction in the overall risk appetite will be the main driver of the trend.

Traders should take into consideration the other Yen pairings which will most likely move in the similar direction. Currently. The market aims for 111 level which has been formerly resistive. It seems that the market broke the psychological level and their next target would be around 112 and 112.50 levels or higher.

Pullbacks may open opportunity for buyers as the 110 level is reached which has been a significant psychological level in the past. It seems that the pullbacks would be extended longer which gives more value for the pair. This is beneficial to gain momentum in the pair while everyone is waiting for a better value.

There has been a sell-off for the pair as the market reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision. It came out different than expected as the Fed lean to the hawkish side which consequently strengthens the U.S. dollar which moves almost always contrary to the Japanese yen as one of the highly sensitive pairs in the market.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 23, 2017

The Kiwi dollar break up to the upside amid Thursday trading hours and cut through over the region 0.7250, touching higher up to 0.7270 area, however, retreated to 0.7250 mark by which buyers have seen to make its entry towards the marketplace.

As the 24-hour exponential moving average still offer support causing the New Zealand to attract the attention of the buyers but pull back is required in order to meet those buyers.
The target is the level above 0.73 and when the commodity sector could at least make some recovery, it could further support the NZD.

Having said that, a consolidation will form between the 0.72 and 0.73 levels. Basically, we are on top of the “fair value” which indicates that buyers are nearly able to direct the market.
Ability to break on top of 0.73 will enable the market to crept higher and it may take some time to do so.

Moreover, the national currency of New Zealand Dollar appeared to be the strongest among other commodity currencies which have the possibility to keep going.

As a buyer, we recognize the breakdown under 0.72 area which is negative and has the potential to revise the overall projections.

The 0.75 level remains to be the target In the longer-term, even though it may take quite some time, the longer-term traders still believe that it will happen soon. With this, the market persists in buying the dips.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 27, 2017

The USD/CAD pair remains confined within its previous trading range of 1.3200 and 1.3300 points as there were no major events yesterday that could have swayed the current stance of the loonie. As the US dollar has been gaining more and more momentum due to the release of a positive durable goods data, this has been subsequently countered by an oil price surge on the side of the Canadian dollar, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been in a deadlock as these events have cancelled out the effects of one another.

Oil prices are still consolidating within its price lows but tension within oil-producing countries has lent some additional support for oil prices, enabling them to surge at over $43 per barrel. Since the loonie is highly dependent on oil prices, the USD/CAD pair is then expected to increase subsequently in line with the increase in oil prices. The Fed chose to brush off the weak data coming from the US economy and still went ahead with its planned rate hike, but the market is not yet sure of the timing of the next rate hike since the dollar strength has not yet established itself as far as traders are concerned. This is why the market is now closely monitoring the incoming readings from the US in the short term in order to determine if the Fed is correct with its assumption that the US will be set to release a slew of positive data. If indeed these data comes out as positive, then the dollar strength should further increase as well.

For today’s trading session, Janet Yellen is set to make a statement within the day but the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain consolidating within its previous trading range.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017

The USD/CAD broke through the support level 1.32 amid trades in the past 24 hours following the strength from the Loonies and sluggish dollar witnessed by the entire market.
Making it possible for the pair to trail near the 1.31 area, en route to 1.30 in the near-term. The next bounce could probably be seen at 1.30 level.

The greenbacks lost steam due to delay from the healthcare reform bill with increasing concerns that the bill should be revised. Another thing to consider is the possibility that the reform will start hitting roadblocks that could make policy decisions a much tougher task. Apparently, this is negative for the American currency and the upcoming data from the US seems to be bad after several weeks. The USD suffers in spite of the efforts of the Fed for not paying attention to the negative data, as well as to bolster the greens.

Moreover, Canadian data indicated an uptrend in the economy of Canada which is reflected from the CAD’s value which is further recognized by the Bank of Canada. According to BOC, the time for rate reduction is over since it signaled a hawkish stance which shows that they remain on hold in the near-term and plans to employ rate hike during the medium and long-term. Having said that, the Loonies bolstered along with the steady increase in oil prices that started earlier this week. The Canadian dollar had progress with increasing success causing the USDCAD to move lower.

Ultimately, we expect no major news from US or Canada, however, the US inventory statistics for oil is anticipated that could affect oil cost and could further weigh on prices of the commodity-linked pair.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017

The British currency rallied amid Thursday trading session as it reached the 1.30 region. Upon breaking the mentioned area allows the market to lead over the top of 1.3450 in the longer-term.

In doing so, a series of pullback has to be done in the short-term and then, the market is expected to deal with a “buy on the dips” situation. It further requires a bit of cautiousness when purchasing with that high level, however, it does not necessary to sell but should imply more patience.

The Friday would likely to be a quiet session since the presence of volatility in the market is high in the past few trades. Currency markets should take a break at least once in awhile and we believe that this is the perfect timing to do so.

Furthermore, the Canadian and the US independence days are scheduled for the next days which is suspected of draining the liquidity on North America.

With this, there is a possibility that movements are very limited in the next 24 hours which could last until Wednesday next week. However, an upward bias is certainly expected since most market reflects this path.

The most suitable way to engage with this market is to search for the value from pullbacks or waiting for a breakout confirmation.

Headline risks are projected due to divorce proceedings which involve the countries, EU and U.S, nonetheless, the market seems favors the side of the sterling pound.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 11, 2017

The market had a long day yesterday since there are few market drivers present in the market which resulted in a low volatility and low liquidity as well. This naturally occurs during the first day of the week, except when there is a special progress happened over the weekend, but there were none. There are expectations for further actions for this day since traders already recovered from its weekend blues and started to continue trading.

The EURUSD does not move a lot in the past 24 hours by which the pair moved on a certain side of the 1.14 region without any development in a particular direction. The US dollar remained steady and it’s quite surprising that American traders failed to lead the run during a follow-up action on Friday. Moreover, the NFP report showed a moderately strong position that relieved the fears and uncertainties towards the US economy and this also help the greenbacks to stabilize.
On the first part of the day, it is anticipated that US traders will support the USD to gain further, however, unable to accomplish it. The concerns regarding the ability of the Trump administration to implement their policies remain to continue, but there are barriers in every step. The possibility that the United States will face difficulty for the next couple of years increases in consideration with the changes in policy. This also explains the hesitation of investors and traders about not engaging with the greens, even if the employment report was stable.

Some reports say that the ECB may not deal with tapering in the next months but it did not bring such impact against the EUR.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases except for the speech from a Fed member later this day. It is projected for more actions this day on the back of market’s inactivity but the favor remains for the euro-dollar pair.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 12, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen has had a bullish trading during the Tuesday session. The 114.50 level is being tested while a massive resistance is seen at the 115 handle. If the market breaks successfully, there will be a “buy and hold” scenario for long-term.
From time to time there will be pullbacks that offer value in the market. However, the speech of Janet Yellen in Congress will put the market into a lackluster and probably turn it into more hawkish.

There will be a higher chance for a breakout in long-term but it may need to gather enough momentum to break through the resistance. If traders successfully do so, then the market will probably reach up to the 118.50 level in the upside.

Selling the pair may not be practical as the floor is strongly supportive below at 114 level. Hence, buyers will take this as an opportunity and if they successfully break down then there will more support found at the 113.50 level below. After some time, the market could break out and reach the upper channel for long positions. The USD/JPY is highly sensitive to global risk appetite and the stock market should then be monitored particularly to the S&P 500.

The interest rate differentials between these two countries favor the U.S. which will persist for long-term and put a bullish pressure into this market after some time. Hence, shorting is not advisable as the pair tries to break out for long-term.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2017

The GBP/USD remained in the pressured area yesterday prior the late recovery that the helped the pair to moved higher and closer the 1.29 level. It further ended the day in an acceptable manner. As mentioned previously, the pound is one of the weakest currencies in the market due to events that continue to impact the GBP. however, there are some signs of recovery and remain to search for ways to have a complete recovery.

The dovish remarks of BOE member, Ben Broadbent pushed the Cable under pressure during the earlier session along with some strong selling in the pair of pound-yen that helped the GBPUSD to reach the 1.28 mark, whereas, the pair started another rally during the afternoon trading.
The Bank of England was able to provide support for the British currency but the market was surprised when Broadbent did not stated hawkish comments as expected. It will be disregarded when the data of average earnings index is released and predicted to helped the GBP to increase, then recovery will continue.

The testimony of Yellen was the major event for this day but there’s nothing hawkish came out based on what she was mentioned previously, hence, this led to further selling of the USD throughout the markets.

It further assisted the pound-dollar to recover and touched the 1.29 mark. It also indicates clear hints about pair recovery and traders should take note of this.

Ultimately, there are no major events or releases from the United Kingdom, aside from the PPI data and Yellen’s speech later this day. Both events mentioned would likely carry some volatility, however, the 1.28 area shows a strong buying support. It can be an interesting trading day today.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017

As mentioned in the previous forecast, the 1.28 region is suitable for the pair to rebound and the GBP/USD was able to begin its recovery prior it moved higher than the said level. The recovery resumes since the Cable was under the consolidation period showing a bullish sentiment.

The area within 1.29 contains lots of volatility, even the pair trades around a narrow range and unable to reach either side of the range. However, it was obvious that bulls remain in control at this moment and the level 1.28 would be the indicator, in case that bears urge to take the driver’s seat. There is no fundamental news released the previous day from the United Kingdom and it was one of the reasons why consolidation had formed.

The dollar bulls hope to get some support from the hawkish speech of Yellen but the bulls were disappointed as she did not cite any hints about economic strength or the timetable of the next interest hike.

This pushed the greenbacks towards the back seat and further helped the pair to remain to trade in a stable approach which is close to the peaks of the range. The PPI data was mainly on expected lines and did not mess up the markets.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United Kingdom except for the significant CPI and retail sales from the United States which is projected to cause a lot of volatility in the near-term. A strong data is possible to move the greenbacks higher and bring into view the 1.28 mark for the GBPUSD.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

The market had a difficulty trading the British pound against the U.S. dollar pair for the past week. After the release of the weaker CPI and retail sales data from the U.S. last week, the pair surged to 1.3030 region and reach beyond the 1.31 region for a short period of time for that day. The traders anticipate the trend last week to be continued since the greenback is not performing well as of now.

The weakened dollar did not help the pound that frustrated traders. The pair underwent correction lower than 1.30 level during the early days of the week which was influenced by the minor recovery of the dollar which was also exhibited by the euro. It resulted to poor performance in the lower channel. Moreover, the less-than-expected economic data from the U.K. deviated the strong trend of data in the past few months. Although, it is anticipated that the market could recover when the dollar depreciated once again but it failed.

The dollar weakened as the end of the week approaches with the outcome of investigations regarding the business transaction of Trump concern rises. Although, most of other currencies take advantage of this situation to move higher. As for the GBP/USD pair, it stays relatively calm. Despite the strong data of retail sales report from the U.K., it was not sufficient to push the pair higher as it closed the week lower than 1.30 level. It seems that there are risks to incur losses in the coming week influenced by the uncertainty from Brexit which continues to affect the British currency.

For today, there are not many economic events for the week as the end of the month approaches and data subsided. For next week, the FOMC statement from the U.S. is anticipated to be announced. Hence, the GBP/USD pair is anticipated to proceed with a weaker trading condition close to the 1.3030 regions as a significant psychological level.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 25, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been in consolidation for the past 24 hours and it seems that the support is sufficient enough. This somehow gives a hint that the pair is ready to move up since there is a strong support in the 1.30 region. As the month end approaching, it is anticipated for the money flow to be different come to the end of the month and there will be choppiness in trades to keep the traders to be interested in the market.

The pair pushes to reach the 1.30 region and was able to sustain higher than the region majority of the day. For the first day of the week, both the volatility and liquidity was low since there is low trading activity. The pair attempted to reach the 1.3050 level for the day but was countered by strong selling that pushes it back with strong support towards the 1.30. It won’t be long when the next bullish trend happens to move towards 1.31.

Risks and uncertainties are still present in trading the pound amid the Brexit negotiation process and the market as a whole. This is why the GBP/USD pair has still not moved out of its restrictions. Although, the Bank of England supports the British currency through its statements and minutes of the meeting that increases the chances for a rate hike in the succeeding months. Yet just last week, the usual strong economic data from the U.K. has had a choppy trading mixed of good and bad results of the data. This has put pressure on the pound and had a big impact.
For today, there is no major news from the U.K. Even so, month end flows are expected to happen throughout the day that keeps the GBP/USD afloat.

 

[Andrea_ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session. There is sufficient support found at the 1.30 level which pushes the trend to the upside. Later on, it is possible for the market to break the current psychological levels with the FOMC announcement to be released in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the markets were quiet as they wait for any hints from the Federal Reserve.

If traders can maintain traders more than the 1.30 level, the GBP/USD pair could move higher towards 1.3125 level and even much higher. There are still buying opportunities on the lows in the market since the British pound became cheaper.

Buying lows in the market are suggested instead of selling until a breakdown occurs below the massive support level. Unless it reaches lower than 1.2950, it is alright to sell the pair. However, if it drops even much lower, it is possible to drop even much more that would change the trend when it happens.

Buyers are more aggressive and it would not take long before they return to the market. If the trend gaps in the upper region, it will most likely reach the 1.3450 level which is possible after some time. Many major events that would come out from politicians could affect the British currency. The uptrend will presumably to continue in the long-term. Also, the pullbacks could offer opportunities in the market at a cheaper level.