Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017

The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyer’s final stand.

As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return.

It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual.

The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursday’s data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon.

This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker.

Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore, consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends.

Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017

There is high volatility during the Tuesday session as it reached the 1.3250 level but was reversed later on. It seems that the 1.32 level is being supportive as the trend proceed moving higher.

A break lower would push the market for a support towards 1.3150 level then to 1.31 level. The British pound is going to be sensitive to a lot of noise which is anticipated as amid the negotiations from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Hence, traders should be cautious of the of any abrupt changes in this pair.

The bullishness could persist for the long term. Although, this has been quite extended in the present time. A pullback opens more opportunity to make use of the current value. The market could target for a 1.3450 level above which the peak of the consolidation for the past few months.

However, if the market successfully gaps higher than the 1.3450 level, the next retest would be at 1.35 handle. A breakout would mean large bullish tone but it will not be long before the currency starts to rally once again. There will be high volatility from the start until this period ends.
 
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017

The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.
 

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2017

The results of the European yields were mixed as it restricted the uptrend of the euro which signifies that Draghi has successfully kept the rates low. The ECB sees the need for the continuous support because of the less than expected result of the PMI. The European retail sales set in stronger than anticipated but this was countered by high jobless claims.

The EUR/USD was not able to surpass yesterday’s range but was able to increase the support level. Nevertheless, the trend persists to be positive with the support close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1747. The resistance level is seen close to the weekly highs at 1.1910.

Overall, the momentum is optimistic with the MACD histogram shown a black indicator with an upward sloping direction that could lead to a higher exchange rate. The RSI positioned higher with the price indicating a positive momentum upward. Currently, the price is set at 77 which is higher than the trigger level 70 to enter the overbought area. Hence, a correction is possible to occur.
 

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2017

The Euro against the U.S. dollar moved sideways during the Wednesday session and consolidates higher than the 1.17 level. If a breakout occurs higher than the 1.1765 level, the trend goes climb higher.

For long-term, the trend has not successfully declined enough to sustain the level. There have been two impulsive moves headed downward and there is a chance for this to further decline. If a breaks down lower than the 1.1680 level, the price could further go down towards 1.16 level.
There is significant volatility in the market as it abruptly moves sideways and adjusted higher or lower as traders have made an unexpected move. During this time of the year, there is usually low liquidity since most senior is a holiday in big trading desks. Hence, this leaves the market a bit dormant.
 
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: August 23, 2017

Trading of the New Zealand dollar declined during the Tuesday session as they tested the 0.7275 handle. It rebounded from that level. It seems that it now ready to consolidate as a whole. The Resistance level is seen higher than the 0.7340 level which will most likely be the area where a rebound is expected. If the market successfully breaks higher from the said level, the price could reach towards the psychological level of 0.75 and above. This area has been the importantly resistive in the past which could make it difficult for a breakdown to happen.
 
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2017

There was a choppy session in trading British pound against U.S. dollar on Wednesday. Traders were unsuccessful in their attempt to bring the price higher. There was a breakdown at the level of 1.28 which gives a bearish tone in trading. Although, the 1.2850 level and above could offer sufficient selling pressure to reverse the trend. It is advisable to sell in short-term rallies as the market continues to be cautious to possess the British pound ahead of the negotiations.

A resistance is found at the 1.29 level which could appeal to sellers between the levels of 1.2850 and 1.29. On the other hand, a break lower than the lows of the day could lead to a further decline with a short-term target of 1.2650 level.
 
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: August 25, 2017

During the Thursday session, the U.S. dollar dropped against the Canadian dollar as it reached the 1.25 handle once again. If the market was able to breakout below, this could fasten the pace to proceed downhill. Although, this would not be a facile process. A rebound is also plausible which is already foreseeable if it happens but the 1.26 level remains resistive. A breakout in the upper channel which would have a big influence to the pair as traders react to the speech with Janet Yellen for today. Volatility could exist in the market, despite the ones in power are the sellers.
 
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017

The rates are still maintained despite high volatility during the Tuesday trading session. The volatility is not surprising as the market reacted to the speeches from Draghi and Yellen on Friday. The speeches finished late for the day when the U.K. market closed as well as on Monday which is a holiday in the U.S.

Volatility is already anticipated which is what happened yesterday. Furthermore, the monthly end currency flow added to it. It supported the pair to move higher over the 1.20 level as it moved towards 1.2070 prior to the U.S. session. Higher global risk also partly contributed to the movement which directly involves the U.S. as the DPRK persists to threaten with different missile tests. Nevertheless, the situation has been handled pretty well and the same time supported the dollar to strengthen in the later in the day.

There was a correction seen that further pushed the pair towards the 1.20 level that closed the day when it started. The movement occurred quite fastly as traders are anxious on how long the trend will last. They are also cautious and trying to see how long before the ECB will intervene in the event of strong euro. These have had a big impact on euro and there will most likely be choppiness for short-term.

For today, the preliminary GDP data and the ADP report from the U.S. are anticipated to be released today which could greatly affect the pair and monitor its impact on the increase of rates. This would also determine if it big enough for the Fed to proceed with a quick rate hike by the end of the year. Hence, volatility is already anticipated and the holiday period is about to end as the EUR/USD pair would have a big change in action for short-term.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2017

The EURUSD moved sideways during the opening of Tuesday’s session, however, Americans have returned to market and bought the single European currency. Another attempt to touch the level 1.20 was made and expected to offer some psychological resistance. As it may be a reversal of the risk off sentiment that was felt across the board. Nevertheless, Americans are planning to embrace the risk on attitude within the currency markets.

The weakness of the greens were generally seen, hence the euro-dollar pair attracted further gains. A close over the 1.20 region based on a daily close has the potential to push the market higher in the longer-term and the targets remains on top of 1.25 level.

Pullbacks keep on buying opportunities and later on will obtain an impulsive trend to move upwards. But, it should be noted that the 1.20 area is highly significant. Several opportunities could probably appear, however patience is very necessary to find the pullbacks which could provide signals when is the best timing to be involved in the market.
 

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

As the week begins, the EUR/USD was seen consolidating and trading in a tight range which continues in the past 24 hours. But it is possible to change its course after the next 24 hours since the markets will draw their attention towards the single European currency, also with the plan of the European Central Bank in the near term.

The euro-dollar pair hovered at the level of 1.19 in the following day, however, there are no hints of any specific trend. Generally, markets appeared to be in a consolidation mode because traders and investors are waiting for the situation to become normal and calm again.

The tension and global risks remain high as the market somewhat predicts for an approaching attack from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. With this, the dollar weighed down with a lot of pressure since Monday.

However, the focus for this day could possibly be in the euro due to the announcement made by the ECB about interest rates which is followed by a press conference. The central bank planned to maintain the rates steady and this is what M. Draghi expected to say during the press con. Hence, this will determine the direction of the EUR in the short term.

The ECB is now very cautious about the strengthening of the euro as the bank failed to reverse or change the fundamentals and planning to put euro in a bid in order to limit the currency’s strength. If Draghi did not do so, then it is expected the EUR/USD will move under the 1.19 handle and drove near 1.18 in the near term. Otherwise, the pair will return to its highs at 1.2070 again.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States or from the euro region. Therefore, the focus will turn to the developments in Korea, as well as to the ECB.
 
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japan yen was traded lower during the beginning of Wednesday session. Yet, the market has bounced off and almost kept the rate as it reached low levels at 108.441. For the week, the trading situation gives a similar outlook after the missile launch by North Korea over Japan.

The USD/JPY pair was seen positioning at 108.724 and declined by 0.078 or -0.07% at 10.21 GMT. The USD/JPY pair closed the session at 0.884 down by -0.81% on Tuesday.

The Forex pair dropped with the current tension with North Korea as well as the rhetorics from Fed speakers. Traders are getting anxious prior to the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Investors keep on reacting to the happenings in the North Korea and the price movement of the safe haven assets. Moreover, the stock market compellingly suggests that traders are concerned with the minimal progress towards the lowering the threat of a nuclear war.

Traders have been anxious with the issue on North Korea especially since the next nuclear test will happen on Sunday. Across the globe, this act was being contradicted as the price movement in the stock market where more investors are being disappointed since there is lack of progress in controlling the situation.

The USD/JPY pair will most likely continue trading with the influence of the U.S. Treasury yields and opinion of investors. The price action of the U.S. Treasury yields which is supported by the economic data and Fed speakers. Reactions of investors are influenced by the geopolitical events about North Korea.

Some minor U.S. data such as Trade Balance, Final Services PMI and the Fed Beige Book and the major report on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released on Wednesday. The anticipated figure will be 55.8 and increased from 53.9.

The whole report may not be that relevant and move the pair. Also, the investors will center its attention on North Korea since this is unpredictable. Fears of uncertainty are reflected for the first time with investors who are taking off setting positions in the stock a market and place the money in safe haven assets. Traders should monitor for another stock sell-off for today.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 8, 2017

The US dollar weakened versus the safe-haven Japanese Yen amid Thursday’s session and tested the 108.50 handle. This level appeared to be an interesting area because it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. A close under this region of the daily candle will push the market downwards through the next major support hurdle, which is the level of 105 below.

Otherwise, when the market rebounded from that point, then it is possible to return to the 109.50 mark. It will take some time for the market to declare their targets and we are currently at a very significant region on the longer-term charts.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 11, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a significant breakdown during the Friday session. Nevertheless, the market proceeds to move downward and a breakdown lower than 108.0 level gives a negative outlook. Hence, this could lead to a further decline and even lower than the 105 level. This gives a very pessimistic outlook and the concept of the Federal Reserve in not raising its interest rates for short-term would persist to have an effect on the market. It is next to monitor the equities which would also influence the next movement of the pair.
 

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017

European yields increased again together with the stabilization of risk appetite and revival of the global stock market that keeps buoying the EURUSD pair.

Eurozone peripherals had performed better while the European Central Bank assures for a cautious move as it prepares to ease off the stimulator. Meanwhile, the chain store sales of the United States declined after the destructive hurricanes Harvey and Irma that are predicted to put pressure on the national figures for this week.

The German economic ministry anticipates slow growth in the H2, which implies that employment growth might curb sentiment.

The euro-dollar pair formed another Doji day showing the opening and closing level were at the same point reflecting an indecision. The support highlighted the 1.1937 level close to the 10-day moving average. While the resistance came in at 1.2092 near the September peaks.

The momentum is in the neutral position and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints around the zero index level linked with a flat trajectory that shows some consolidation. Moreover, the RSI (relative strength index) known to be a momentum oscillator that assesses the increasing or decreasing momentum. The index prints a reading of 59 in the middle of the neutral range, which also indicates further consolidation.
 
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14, 2017

The U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen rallied to the upper channel during the Wednesday session and there is an unabating buying pressure. The discussion on tax reform from the United States further worsens the situation since it came out earlier than expected. On the other hand, this is favorable for the greenback. This makes more U.S. companies more aggressive and in all likelihood boost the U.S. economy. On this condition, it is presumed that buyers will enter the market and attain the level of 111. If the market successfully breaks out, there is a potential for the price to move much higher.
 
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017

The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.

Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2017

The euro-dollar pair remained almost unchanged as it stayed in the level 1.1953 under the 10-day moving average. On the other hand, the inflation came in at 1.5% which is lower the 2% target of the European Central Bank. Now, traders’ attention was turned to the Fed Reserve meeting on September 19 and 20, but there is no any expectations for the meeting. Moreover, the Fed had mentioned some ways in managing the bond purchase program. Contrarily, the Bundesbank assumes that growth will slow down in the second half of the fiscal year.

The EURUSD consolidated prior the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is scheduled tomorrow. The pair’s support hit the 1.1834 mark which is seen around the lows of the previous week. The resistance highlighted the region 1.2092 around the highs last week.

The momentum maintained a negative stance while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints in the red with a descending trajectory, pointing to lower exchange rate.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20, 2017

The currency pair EUR/USD was able to make some slight improvement during the trading session yesterday, however, the pair resumed the consolidation prior the meeting of the Fed Reserve scheduled on Thursday.

The German Zew Investor confidence had increased which buoyed the euro-dollar pair, but the attention of the traders are centered towards the Federal Reserve. When they mentioned about quantitative tightening during the meeting, it would likely that the U.S. import prices will rise more than 2% year over year.

The EURUSD remained to sit on the 10-day moving average, and continued consolidating before the Fed meeting tomorrow. The pair’s support touched the 1.1834 level around the lows last week. On one side, the resistance entered the 1.2092 region near the highs of the previous week.

Moreover, prices seem to generate a bull flag formation serves a pause that refreshes upwards. The negative momentum is moving downwards while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in the red showing an ascending trajectory that reflects for further consolidation.
 
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 21, 2017

The EURUSD trailed downwards during Wednesday's trading session after the release of Federal Research report as the central bank maintained interest rates. Moreover, the Fed Reserve announced that they progress with the quantitative tightening with an amount of 600 billion approximately, which is related to balance sheet reduction every year.

The FOMC also mentioned another rate increase scheduled presumably in December. Among 16 Fed members, there are 11 who voted for a hike this year. According to forecasts made by the officials, it might extend until next year to attain the neutral rate level of Fed funds. The Federal Reserve System gradually approach the issue about the three-time hike in 2019 and 2020 and the long-term rate was lowered down to 2.75%, with the previously 3.0%.

The euro-dollar pair weakened after the dollar made some progress along with the increase of yields. The support lies at 1.1834 region around the lows last week while resistance can be found at 1.2092 level near the previous highs.

The RSI (relative strength index) which functions as a momentum oscillator measuring the performance of the momentum, whether it will accelerate or decelerate. The indicator broke the support which shows an ascending negative momentum. On the other hand, the MACD histogram prints in the red, reflecting a downward trajectory that leads to a lower exchange rate.
 

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