FreshForex News

[Yvri_volkov]

BEHIND THE WALLS: WALL STREET ON THE DECISION OF THE FED

Dear clients,

Wall Street was stumped by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

In a statement accompanying a quarter-point rate hike, the central bank ditched previous language that said "some additional policy tightening" might be warranted. Chairman Jerome Powell then said banking sector conditions had “generally improved” since early March.

But investors still had many questions. Despite Fed officials' forecasts of a mild recession, Powell expects the US economy to grow at a modest pace this year. And while he said rates are "maybe at" a fairly restrictive level, getting back to the 2% inflation target won't be a "smooth process."

As Powell spoke, the S&P 500 went up and down, then closing down 0.7%. Treasury revenues fell.

The fact that the stock market is having a hard time figuring out where to go next is evidence that this has already been priced in, experts say. Looking ahead, investors want to know what value the Fed will place on tightening lending conditions caused by stress in regional banks.

Powell's speech failed to reassure the market, investors heard what they expected, but not exactly what they wanted; the lack of clear guidance from the Fed is also worrisome. The general mood is quite calm, no revelations from Powell have been made and the situation is still developing according to market forecasts. A number of analysts note that the Fed is still set to tighten: they will need confirmation from the data that the monetary policy stance is quite restrictive.

The prospects for a pause or rate cut are viewed very cautiously, with particular attention to the possibility of a recession. At the same time, few people believe in further increases, according to analysts, this will require catastrophic inflation.

Fed futures showed that the likelihood of a rate hike in June had dropped to around 2%.

TRADING SIGNALS: US FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING

Dear clients,

On May 3, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.

How the situation with rates will develop now, our expert tells:

The Fed may raise the rate by 0.25% and signal to the market that it will not raise the rate at the next meetings, as inflation is declining, which is favorable for economic growth. On Wednesday consider buying AUDUSD, GBPUSD, #NQ100, #SP500.

A reversal can quite shake up the market — be ready with a 300% deposit bonus!

 

[Yvri_volkov]

ELECTIONS IN TURKEY
12 May 2023

Elections in TurkeyDear traders!

We would like to draw your attention to the fact that presidential elections in Turkey will be held on May 14, 2023. This event may provoke a sharp increase in volatility of Turkish Lira instruments and, as a consequence, lead to increased trading risks.

As we care about our clients, we strongly recommend all traders to be more attentive and also:

Maintain a margin level of at least 500%;
Use protective Stop-loss orders;
to adjust the volume of current open positions at their own discretion, if necessary.

It should be noted that in case of significant increase of volatility on financial markets with changing conditions at the liquidity providers of the company the following is possible: increase of spreads and levels of orders setting, change of margin requirements for any instruments both for previously opened positions and for new ones, introduction of "Close only" mode or suspension of trading in accordance with the regulatory documents of the company.

Please consider this information when planning work on the financial markets.

DOWNWARD SPIRAL. A LONG DROP IN OIL PRICES

A long drop in oil pricesDear clients,

Oil prices fell Friday, setting a fourth weekly decline, as renewed economic troubles in the U.S. and China revived worries about fuel demand growth in the world's two largest oil consumers.

Brent crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.64%, to $74.50 a barrel by 06:35 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, on the other hand, lost 39 cents, or 0.55%, to $70.48.

Both benchmarks will fall about 1.1% over the week, marking the longest streak of weekly declines since November 2021.

With negotiations over the U.S. government debt ceiling deadlocked and renewed fears that another regional bank is in crisis, fears that the U.S. will enter a recession are growing. A decline in new corporate loans in China and weaker economic data released there earlier in the week raised doubts again about the stimulation of oil demand growth as the country recovers from COVID restrictions.

The price rose earlier Friday, after falling during the previous two sessions, on some demand expectations following comments from the U.S. Secretary of Energy that the States might buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The U.S. government has said it will buy oil when prices are at or below $67-72 a barrel at all times.

However, negotiations to raise the $31.4 trillion U.S. federal debt limit may not reach an agreement in time to prevent a default on the national debt, which could cause serious market turmoil. China's consumer price data for April rose slower than expected and factory price deflation has deepened, suggesting more stimulus is needed.

The oil market largely ignored the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) global oil demand forecast for 2023, which projected demand growth in China, the world's biggest oil importer.

HERE WE GO AGAIN: THREATS TO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

Dear clients,

A prolonged period of economic downturn in the U.S. will cause tech stocks to plummet at a time when they are attracting a lot of investor money, strategists at Bank of America Corp. say.

Michael Hartnett's team expects the recession to "crack credit and tech" just as it did in 2008, according to Friday's note.

Investors poured $3.8 billion into technology stocks in the week ended May 10, the largest inflow since December 2021, BofA reported, citing data from EPFR Global. On the other hand, $2.1 billion was pulled out of financial stocks, the biggest buyout since May 2022, amid turmoil at regional U.S. banks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up 22% this year as investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy soon, easing pressure on the rate-sensitive sector. And while earnings in this sector will continue to fall from last year, traders already expect a recovery in 2024.

Hartnett, who correctly predicted last year that recession fears would cause stocks to pull back, warned that the U.S. central bank was unlikely to pause rate hikes amid high inflation, as well as low unemployment and presidential approval. That echoes the views of Bloomberg Intelligence strategists, who view the likelihood of weakening tech, media and telecom stocks as they "face the reality of longer-term interest rate hikes and a softening of the earnings outlook."

Hartnett thinks negative wage data will be a buying signal for cyclical economic-related stocks, such as tech stocks, in 2023. The U.S. labor market has proven resilient, with hiring and worker wage growth accelerating in April.

Other notable flows over the past week included a slowdown in cash inflows - $13.8 billion went into that asset class. At the same time, Treasuries saw the largest inflows in the past six weeks, with $6.3 billion. U.S. and European equity funds bought $2.7 billion and $2.2 billion each, respectively.

 

[mas_pluto]

Ada banyak sekali saat ini broker yang tersedia di forex, tinggal trader pilih broker mana yang sesuai dan tepat. Saya sendiri bergabung ke broker Tickmill, disini selain modal aman ada juga fasilitas edukasi yang bisa dimanfaatkan untuk menambah wawasan dan pemahaman tentang pasar forex.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

"EVERY BIT HELPS". RECORD PERFORMANCE OF US TREASURIES

Dear clients,

Foreign buying of US Treasury bonds in March rose to the highest level in more than two years, Treasury Department data showed on Monday, as investors bought government debt amid bank stress during the month.

US Treasuries rose to $7.573 trillion in March, up about $230 billion from $7.343 trillion the previous month. Monthly Treasury bond accumulation in March was the highest since June 2021, analysts at TD Securities said.

According to the cited data, March was particularly significant as it was a time of volatility in the banking sector. The most interesting point was the huge amount of treasury bond purchases. Investors were de-risking at the time because of banking stress. There was a lot of buying on the Chinese side, a lot of buying on the Japanese side. There were interesting purchases from the UK side or via the UK, indicating purchases by hedge funds.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield started March at 3.996%, falling by 50 basis points to 3.49% by the end of the month. In October last year the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached a 15-month high of 4.338%.

Foreign inflows into Treasuries were $35.8bn per trade in March, up from $57.6bn in the previous month. US equities were also bought by foreigners, with inflows of $36.1bn following net sales of $16.2bn in February and outflows of $27.5bn in January.

US residents, meanwhile, increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $22.8bn compared with net sales of $8.3bn in February.

Overall, net purchases of long-term overseas securities totaled $133.3bn in March, up sharply from February's inflow of $56.6bn, the data showed.

PLATINUM DROUGHT

Dear clients,

Rising demand from automakers, industry and investors will push the global platinum market into the biggest deficit in years, three industry reports predict.

The reports highlight the changing fortunes of platinum and its cognate metal palladium, which are used mainly in vehicle exhausts to help neutralise harmful engine emissions. For many years, growing demand and shortages of palladium have pushed prices upwards, while low consumption and a more abundant supply of platinum have kept prices low.

Two reports released on Monday suggest that if palladium remains in short supply this year, the platinum supply shortfall will be greater. Automakers are switching from palladium to platinum as a cost-saving measure, heavy-duty vehicles with a high platinum content are on the rise, while zero-emission electric cars are making their way into the palladium-focused light vehicle market. Platinum is also being supported by industrial and jewellery consumption, while palladium demand is almost entirely dependent on the automobile sector.

The World Platinum Investment Council forecast a platinum deficit of 983,000 oz, the highest since the 1970s, following last year's surplus of 854,000 oz.

Meanwhile, net platinum holdings in the ETF increased by 43,000 ounces in Q1 '23, reversing six previous quarters of net disinvestment. The board believes that the revised 2023 deficit forecast of almost 1 million ounces based on historical data is likely to attract additional investor interest in bullion and coins as well as physical asset-backed ETFs.

FOR A RAINY DAY. HOW WALL STREET IS PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE DEFAULT

Dear clients,

As negotiations to raise the debt ceiling of the USD 31.4 trillion government debt intensify, Wall Street banks and asset managers have started to prepare for the consequences of a possible default.

The financial industry has prepared for such a crisis before, most recently in September 2021. But this time, the relatively short timeframe for a compromise has bankers on their guard, said one senior industry official.

US government bonds underpin the global financial system, so it is difficult to fully assess the damage a default would cause, but executives expect strong volatility in equity, debt and other markets.

The ability to trade in and out of treasury bonds on the secondary market will be severely limited. Even a short-term breach of the debt ceiling could lead to a spike in interest rates, a plunge in equity prices and a breach of credit documentation and leverage agreements.

Banks, brokers and trading platforms are preparing for disruptions in the treasury market as well as wider volatility.

This typically includes planning for how payments in treasury securities will be made; how the critical funding markets will react; ensuring there is sufficient technology, staffing and cash to handle large trading volumes; and checking the potential impact on contracts with clients.

Large bond investors have warned that maintaining a high level of liquidity is important in order to withstand potential sharp fluctuations in asset prices and avoid having to sell at the most inopportune time.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), a leading industry group, developed an action plan that details what Treasury bond market participants — the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), clearing banks and Treasury bond dealers — should do in the run-up to and on the days of a possible Treasury bond payment miss.

SIFMA considered several scenarios. The most likely scenario is that the Treasury would buy time to pay bondholders by announcing on the eve of the payment that it would reschedule these securities, extending them one day at a time. This would allow the market to continue functioning, but no interest would likely accrue on the deferred payment.

In the most destructive scenario, the Treasury does not pay any principal or coupon and does not extend the maturity date. The outstanding bonds would no longer be tradable and could not be transferred through the Fedwire Securities Service, which is used to hold, transfer and settle Treasury bonds.

Each scenario is likely to cause significant operational problems and will require daily manual adjustments to trading and settlement processes.

In addition, in past periods of confrontation over the debt ceiling issue — in 2011 and 2013 — Fed staff and policymakers developed their plan, which is likely to serve as a starting point, with the last and most sensitive step being the complete removal of defaulted securities from the market.

 

[mas_pluto]

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[Yvri_volkov]

5 MINUTE BREAKTHROUGH: A PROFITABLE STARTING STRATEGY

Dear clients,

What can you do in a mere 5 minutes? Hit the restroom, have a smoke or... make a profit. This time, we'll be looking at a simple trading strategy fit for both newcomers and experienced traders.

Join us on May 24 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

NEW TRICKS OF THE OLD CRYPTO

Dear clients,

According to Glassnode, daily transactions hit an all-time high of 682,000 this month, up almost 40% from the previous peak in 2017. Bitcoin's dominance, or share of the total $1.16 trillion cryptocurrency market, has risen to 44% from 38% at the start of the year.

This is due to BRC-20, the first class of cryptocurrency tokens created on the bitcoin blockchain apart from bitcoin itself. Nearly 25,000 experimental coins have already been minted this year, leading to a surge in transactions.

Mostly due to the creation of these tokens, the average daily transaction volume in seven days was more than 531,000, almost double what it was a month ago, according to Blockchain.com.

This new class of cryptocurrency has no specific use beyond speculation, much like memecoins. However, its nascent popularity points to interest in bitcoin not just as a store of value or a payment method, but also as a basis for developing new coins and applications - previously considered the domain of more modern blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana.

Some investors and developers see bitcoin blockchain as a safer long-term basis for creating tokens and applications amid the cryptocurrency carnage that has followed the collapse of high-profile companies such as FTX and a general flight away from risky assets, market participants say.

Nevertheless, the excitement around BRC-20 has been volatile. The total value of these tokens, which are typically traded on secondary markets, especially on decentralised exchanges, surpassed $1bn in early May, but has since fallen to $446m, according to tracker BRC-20.io.

Because the bitcoin blockchain was not originally designed to support the crypto ecosystem, unlike Ethereum and Solana, BRC-20 tokens are created using ordinar theory, which allows data to be written on each satoshi - the smallest bitcoin denomination, or hundred-millionth of a bitcoin.

The race to create these new coins has had little impact on the price of bitcoin, which has been trading below $30,000 since mid-April. However, experts see this trend as "promising" in terms of interest in creating products on the bitcoin blockchain.

ONE STEP BEHIND. THE AI LEGISLATION

Dear clients,

As the race to develop more powerful artificial intelligence services such as ChatGPT accelerates, some regulators are still relying on old laws to control a technology that could change the way society and business operate.

The European Union is at the forefront of developing new rules for AI that could become a global benchmark to address the privacy and security concerns raised by the rapid development of generative AI technology underpinning OpenAI's ChatGPT. However, it will take several years for the legislation to take effect.

"In the absence of regulations, the only thing governments can do is to apply existing rules," experts say. "If it's about protecting personal data, they apply data protection laws, if it's about threatening people's security, there are rules that have not been specifically defined for AI, but they still apply."

In April, European national privacy regulators set up a task force to tackle ChatGPT after Italian regulator Garante pulled the service offline, accusing OpenAI of violating the EU's GDPR, a wide-ranging privacy regime adopted in 2018. ChatGPT was reinstated after the US company agreed to install age verification features and allowed European users to block their information from being used to train AI models.

Generative AI models have become well known for making mistakes, or 'hallucinations', providing misinformation with supernatural certainty.

Such errors can have serious consequences. If a bank or government department uses AI to speed up decision-making, people could be unfairly denied credit or benefits. Major technology companies, including Google and Microsoft Corp, have stopped using AI products considered ethically questionable, such as financial products.

US and European experts say regulators intend to apply existing rules covering everything from copyright and data privacy to two key aspects: the data entering models and the content they produce.

While regulators adapt to the pace of technological advances, some in the industry are calling for more engagement with corporate leaders. Dialogue between regulators and companies has so far been "limited", they say.

"This does not bode well for the future," they say. "Regulators seem either slow or unwilling to adopt approaches that strike the right balance between consumer protection and business growth."

 

[mas_pluto]

Untuk saat ini sudah banyak sekali broker yang tersedia di forex. Tinggal trader pilih broker mana yang tepat dan sesuai. Dengan sudah sesuai memiliki broker, maka trader nantinya akan dapat merasakan kenyamanan dan keamanan menjalankan tradingnya. Hal ini juga yang sudah saya rasakan sejak bergabung di broker Tickmill.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

CHIPPIN' IN: NVIDIA'S POWER BOOST

Dear clients,

Nvidia Corp on Wednesday forecast second-quarter revenue more than 50 percent above Wall Street forecasts and said it was increasing shipments to meet growing demand for its artificial intelligence chips, which are used to run ChatGPT and many similar services.

Shares in Nvidia, the world's most expensive semiconductor company, soared 28 per cent after the signal to a record high of $391.50. That boosted the market value of Nvidia stock by about $200 billion to more than $950 billion, extending the Silicon Valley-based company's lead as the world's most expensive chip maker and the fifth most valuable company on Wall Street.

Nvidia is forecasting revenue of $11bn for the current quarter, with analysts polled by Refinitiv citing a figure of $7.15bn. They note that amid a gold rush of generative artificial intelligence, demand for Nvidia chips is secure for the rest of the year.

Adjusted revenue for the quarter ended April 30 was $7.19bn on revenue expectations of $6.52bn. The company's data centre chip sales were $4.28bn, beating analysts' forecasts of $3.89bn, according to FactSet.

Nvidia faces competition in AI chips from traditional rivals such as Advanced Micron Devices Inc and Intel Corp, as well as from startups such as Cerebras Systems and its own AI chip efforts at companies such as Google and Amazon.

According to FactSet, revenue from gaming chip sales exceeded Wall Street expectations, coming in at $2.24 billion against forecasts of $1.97 billion. Net income rose to $2.04 billion, or 82 cents per share, from $1.62 billion, or 64 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the company earned $1.09 per share in the first quarter, beating estimates of 92 cents.

THE STRUGGLE FOR DEPENDENCY. OPENAI AND EU CONFLICT

Dear clients,

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has spent the last week travelling around Europe, meeting leading politicians in France, Spain, Poland, Germany and the UK to discuss the future of AI and the progress of ChatGPT. On Wednesday, he warned that the company could leave the EU if the bloc becomes "over-regulated".

By February, ChatGPT had set a record for the fastest user base growth of any consumer app in history. More than six months after OpenAI unveiled its AI-powered chatbot to the world, concerns about its potential sparked excitement and anxiety - and led to conflict with regulators.

"The current EU bill on artificial intelligence would be over-regulatory, but we have heard that it is going to be pushed back," Altman said on Wednesday. EU lawmakers responsible for drafting the AI law have disputed Altman's claims. EU industry chief Thierry Breton also criticised the threat, saying the draft rules were non-negotiable. Dutch MEP Kim van Sparrentak, who also worked on the EU bill, said she and her colleagues "should not allow themselves to be blackmailed by US companies".

"If OpenAI cannot meet the basic requirements of data management, transparency, security and protection, then their systems are not suitable for the European market," she said.

OpenAI first clashed with regulators in March, when Italian data regulator Garante shut down the app domestically, accusing OpenAI of breaching European privacy rules. ChatGPT returned to the web after the company introduced new privacy protections for users.

Meanwhile, EU lawmakers have made new proposals to the Artificial Intelligence Act, which would oblige companies using generative tools such as ChatGPT to disclose all copyrighted material used to train systems. EU parliamentarians agreed a draft law earlier this month. Member states, the European Commission and Parliament will finalise the final details of the bill.

The departure of OpenAI is seen as an unlikely outcome as the European market is too valuable economically. Experts note that some legislative relieves are still possible, but the overall trajectory has already been set.

 

[mas_pluto]

Setiap broker pasti memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing, hal terpenting sebagai trader adalah memilih broker yang tepat dan sesuai. Ini dilakukan agar nantinya bisa membantu trader juga dalam melakukan perdagangan forex dengan nyaman dan aman bersama broker Tickmill.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

UNPAUSABLE. FUTURE OF FED RATES

Dear clients,

Federal Reserve policymakers received a dose of unexpectedly strong US economic data on Friday, which bolstered the case for further monetary policy tightening to reduce persistently high inflation.

A 0.8% rise in consumer spending last month compared with March was good news, showing that the economy is not on the brink of recession, but discomfort for policymakers waiting for a slowdown that could ease rising pressure on prices. And the increase in core inflation to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in March, underlined the Fed's less-than-steady progress in fighting inflation. The US central bank's inflation target is 2%.

Combined with seemingly some progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic US default, the latest data raises doubts that the Fed will indeed "pause" its campaign to raise rates, as Chairman Jerome Powell signalled earlier this month.

Interest rate futures traders are seeing less subtlety in the numbers and are now expecting an 11th consecutive interest rate hike in June, a reversal of the June pause bets made after the last hike on May 3.

Next month's rate hike is not a definitive decision: Key labour market data from next Friday and fresh inflation data expected on 13 June are still to be announced before the Fed meeting on 13-14 June. However, there are growing expectations that even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged in June, it will hit the brakes in July. In the futures markets the odds are three to one in favour of a rate hike until then.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller — one of the Fed's most hawkish voices — made this point earlier last week. He said that while key data in the coming weeks as well as uncertainty over credit conditions could support a temporary rate halt, the lack of progress on inflation points to the need for further tightening.

BIG AND TECH. S&P 500' FINEST

Dear clients,

Never before in the history of US equities has a small group of companies from one industry had such an impact on the entire market. Six companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta Platforms — now have a combined valuation of around $10 trillion and account for more than a quarter of the total market capitalisation of the S&P 500.

All of these stocks have doubled in value in 2023 — and Nvidia and Meta more than doubled — thanks to the dawn of artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon halt interest rate hikes. The benchmark index is up 8% in 2023, but its return is down to just 2% if technology companies are excluded. The S&P 500 is also well behind the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which has entered bull market territory, jumping 22% this year.

Historically, it is rare for a handful of stocks from one sector to make up such a large proportion of the S&P 500. The last time the five largest valuation companies accounted for a quarter of the total market value of the index was in the 1960s, according to Schroders. It is also the first time in history that all five of the largest publicly listed companies represent the same industry.

However, this is not all good news for investors.

It is tempting to view the dominance of the technology sector as a good thing. But single-industry stocks tend to be vulnerable to the same macroeconomic factors — such as rising interest rates, which often hit technology stocks harder than other companies because they are more reliant on borrowing cash.

The overall size of the S&P 500 market is so concentrated around technology companies that it is more vulnerable to sharp price swings than before, Minerva Analysis said. When there is a narrow group of leaders, there is a big risk if something bad happens to technology. If interest rates rise to 7%, it will be bad news for the whole market.

So while the tech giants have provided a surprise rally in equities in 2023, their rising market capitalisation could end up being more of a curse than a blessing for investors.

TRADER' STARTER PACK

Dear clients,

When you are at the start of your trading path, you might want some boost, something to get ahead. This time we'll be looking at some strategies which can help a beginner to gain an egde.

Join us on May 31 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

THE RISING SUN OF THE MARKET

Dear clients,

As Japanese equities have unexpectedly come back into fashion with global investors, analysts at leading Wall Street investment banks are predicting further gains in the country's major indices.

Japan's Topix index (Tokyo Price Index) has reached new highs in the last two weeks, and on Monday it recorded its highest level since July 1990.

It has jumped 14% since the start of this year, recently fuelled by optimism from the tentative debt ceiling deal reached between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, along with momentum from a weaker yen. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 continues to rise, gaining around 20% over the past year.

The start of an inflationary regime, combined with Tokyo Stock Exchange valuation reforms, will see Japanese equities hit record highs as early as the first half of 2025, according to BofA Securities.

BofA's forecasts echo those of other Wall Street firms, which see further room for a rally in Japanese equities. Heightened interest from foreign investors, strong earnings and a weak yen should continue to support growth in the Topix index. Disappointment with the Chinese economy and Warren Buffett's recent interest in the Japanese market are also cited as motivators.

While equities may face headwinds in the near term, the BofA said there is "no need to take a bearish stance if the market rallies in line with fundamentals". The current investment environment remains favourable following the opening of the economy and stronger inflation.

The rush in Japanese equities reached a record high on Wednesday amid a continued surge in foreign demand for the country's shares and an adjustment in positions ahead of the rebalancing of the MSCI equity index.

The value of shares traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime Market index reached an unprecedented level of nearly 7 trillion yen ($50 billion) on May 31. Finance Ministry data on Thursday showed foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese shares for nine consecutive weeks in the period ended May 26, the longest buying period since November 2019.

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TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR MAY

Dear clients,

On June 2, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.

We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:

Falling unemployment claims and rising employment in services - the lion's share of the US economy - are indicative of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the dollar's strength. On Friday, consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR, USDCAD, USDCHF.

Make the most out of your trades with a 300% deposit bonus!

ONE LESS THING TO WORRY ABOUT. THE GROWTH OF OIL

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Thursday by the largest amount in a fortnight ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, while the passage of a bill to suspend the US debt ceiling by the House of Representatives helped offset the impact of rising stocks in the country.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.01, or 3 per cent, to settle at $70.10 a barrel, recording its biggest daily gain since May 5. Brent crude futures rose $1.68, or 2.3%, to $74.65 a barrel, the biggest daily gain since May 17.

Both benchmarks recovered after two consecutive sessions of declines after the House of Representatives passed a bill late on Wednesday night to suspend the US government debt ceiling and improve the chances of preventing a default. The bill now moves to the Senate.

Market attention has shifted to the OPEC+ meeting on 4 June. Sources within the organisation said the alliance was unlikely to deepen supply cuts at Sunday's meeting, but some analysts believe this is possible as demand figures in China and the US have been disappointing in recent weeks.

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports jumped and strategic stocks fell to their lowest level since September 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Data from China's manufacturing sector presented a mixed picture, with Thursday's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI better than expected, while official government data from the previous day reported that activity at firms in May contracted to its lowest level in five months.

 

[uncle.gober]

Setiap broker memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing, maka dari itulah diperhatikan pada saat memilih broker. Karena dengan sudah tepat memilih broker, maka langkah selanjutnya trader memanfaatkan segala fasilitas yang sudah disediakannya. Ini dilakukan supaya nantinya trader akan bisa mendapatkan keuntungan dan sukses di forex bersama broker Tickmill.

 

[mas_pluto]

Ada banyak sekali saat ini broker tersedia di forex. Tinggal trader memilih broker mana yang tepat dan sesuai. Dan saya sendiri bergabung ke dalam broker Tickmill, disini saya bisa melakukan perdagangan forex secara maksimal dan juga diuntungkan.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

HOT TOPIC: SWAP-FREE CRYPTO IN JUNE!

Dear clients,

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Meet the summer with profit!

WHEN LESS IS MORE. SAUDI ARABIA CUTS OIL PRODUCTION

Dear clients,

Saudi Arabia will make deep production cuts in July, in addition to the broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply until 2024, as the group seeks to boost oil prices.

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said the country's output would fall to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest cut in years.

"This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told on a news conference. "We wanted to ice the cake. We always want to add suspense. We don't want people to try to predict what we do... This market needs stabilisation".

OPEC+ pumps about 40% of the world's oil, which means its policy decisions could have a significant impact on oil prices.

A surprise decision to cut supplies in April briefly boosted Brent crude prices by about $9, but prices have since retreated under pressure from concerns about global economic weakness and its impact on demand. On Friday, Brent crude ended trading for the week at $76.

OPEC+ imposed production cuts of 3.66m bpd, representing 3.6% of global demand, including the 2m bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66m bpd agreed in April. Those cuts were valid until the end of 2023, and on Sunday OPEC+ said it would extend them until the end of 2024 as part of a broader deal on production policy agreed after seven hours of negotiations.

In addition to extending current OPEC+ production cuts by 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed on Sunday to cut overall production targets by a further 1.4 million bpd from current targets to 40.46 million bpd from January 2024.

However, many of these cuts will not be real as the group has lowered targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola to bring them in line with actual current production levels. For its part, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise its production targets by about 0.2m bpd to 3.22m bpd.

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS: APPLE'S WWDC PRESENTATION

Dear clients,

Shares of Apple Inc. traded at record intraday levels on Monday, but failed to close at an all-time high, although they were on track to do so for most of the session.

Apple shares closed Monday at $179.58, down 0.8 per cent after speaking at its WWDC developer event. The stock was as high as $184.95 ahead of the presentation, surpassing its all-time intraday high of $182.94 set on 4 January 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The smartphone giant has endured a lot since its last record close, facing pandemic-related supply problems and cost pressures from its customer base. But Wall Street seems fairly relaxed about Apple's ability to thrive in an era of shrinking consumer budgets. One analyst noted after the company's latest earnings report that iPhones priced at $1,000 and above have become a glorified essentials purchase.

In addition to traditional products, the company introduced a mixed reality headset and surprised investors with price and timing: the new Vision Pro will cost $3499, when the expectation area was around $3000, and will be released in early 2024, not later this year. By announcing the Vision Pro, Apple is making an attempt to enter a category that hasn't been widely adopted until now.

Overall, it's been a strong year for big tech companies. For 2023, Apple shares are up 38%, while Microsoft Corp. shares are up 40%, Alphabet Inc. — 43%, Amazon.com Inc. — 49% and Meta Platforms Inc. shares gained more than 125%

 

[Yvri_volkov]

BITCOIN AND ETHER: GROWTH SUPPORTED BY ACTIVE WITHDRAWALS FROM EXCHANGES

Dear clients,

According to the latest information, investors are rapidly withdrawing Bitcoin and Ether from cryptocurrency exchanges. This has caused the balance sheets of these cryptocurrencies to fall to surprising levels over the past five years.

On June 19, the lowest Bitcoin and Ether balances since 2018 were recorded.

This withdrawal has eased the pressure on the market, supporting the growth of both assets after their recent declines. For example, Bitcoin reached a price of $30,000 for the first time in 2.5 months.

We can expect Bitcoin and Ether to continue to strengthen as the withdrawal trend continues. This gives additional confidence to investors and confirms the continued popularity of these cryptocurrencies as a long-term investment.

So now is the best time to actively trade cryptocurrencies! And topping up your trading account with crypto right now, you'll get an extra 10% to your account balance for nothing.

TRADING SIGNALS: BANK OF ENGLAND'S DECISION ON INTEREST RATES

Dear clients,

On June 22, the Bank of England makes a report on the matter of the interest rates, it is one of the most important events affecting the quotes of the pound sterling. Inflation is one of it's main predictors. Using these data, a trader can judge the internal and external economic development of the country, which is especially important when trading pairs that include the GBP.

What to expect and what to pay attention to, tells our leading analyst:

The Bank of England may raise the discount rate by 0.25 p.p. to 4.75% today and signal to traders that further rate hikes are needed due to high inflation in the U.K. economy. A rate hike is negative for the stock market and it is preferable to open a Sell position in the UK #FTSE100 index on Thursday.

During the inflation period, a drawdown bonus is an excellent choice: until June 30, instead of 101%, you get 202% when topping up of 202 USD or more.

 

[mas_pluto]

Setiap broker pastinya memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing. Dan sebagai trader yang sudah memilih broker yang tepat, langkah selanjutnya adalah memanfaatkan segala fasilitas yang sudah disediakannya, ini dilakukan agar bisa membantu trader untuk memperdalam pengetahuan dan pemahaman tentang forex.

 

[uncle.gober]

Benar sekali, saya setuju dengan itu. Saya sendiri juga masih melakukan trading di broker Tickmill, apalagi disini ada fasilitas edukasi yang bisa trader manfaatkan untuk menambah wawasan dan pengetahuan tentang forex, dengan begitu trading di akun real bisa lebih maksimal di akun real.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

AN ENCORE: THE HOTTEST PROMOTIONS MUST GO ON!

Dear clients,

On numerous requests swap-free indices and 202% drawdown bonus are extended until July 19.

Don't miss the opportunity to trade indices without rollover fee or to double boost your deposit once again.

Spend your summer with profit!

 

[mas_pluto]

Setiap broker memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing. Maka dari itulah jika sudah memilih broker yang tepat dan juga aman, maka trader dimanfaatkan segala fasilitas yang sudah disediakannya, dengan begitu nantinya kita bisa belajar lebih dalam dan lebih maksimal untuk melakukan trading di akun real dengan baik bersama broker Tickmill.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

THE UPSIDE GAME. BUILDING GROWTH OF OIL PRICES

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed on supply cuts in August by leading exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia amid an uncertain global economic outlook.

Brent crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.46 per cent, to $74.99 a barrel by 0618 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.12 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.47%.

Saudi Arabia on Monday said it would extend a voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until August, the kingdom's state news agency said. Russia will also cut oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

The cuts would amount to 1.5% of global supply and bring the total number of cuts promised by OPEC+ oil producers to 5.16 million bpd, as Riyadh and Moscow seek to support prices.

US crude stocks were expected to fall by around 1.8m barrels in the week to 30 June, marking the third consecutive week of decline. Industrial stockpile data will be released on Wednesday and official data on Thursday, both of which will be delayed by a day due to a US holiday.

On the macroeconomic front, analysts' forecasts were mixed after business surveys showed a decline in global manufacturing activity due to sluggish demand in China and Europe, and US manufacturing activity fell further in June, reaching levels last seen during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

WRITE CLUB. NEW MESSENGER FROM META

Dear clients,

Mark Zuckerberg on Wednesday directly challenged Twitter with the Threads service, amassing millions of users in a matter of hours, as it seeks to take advantage of the position of its competitor, which is in a significantly weakened state after a series of chaotic decisions by its owner Elon Musk.

"Let's do this. Welcome to Threads," Zuckerberg wrote in his first message on the app, along with a fiery emoji. According to him, 5 million people signed up to the app in the first four hours. Analysts say Threads' tie-up with Instagram could give it a built-in user base and advertising machine. This could siphon off advertising dollars from Twitter at a time when its new CEO is trying to revive its struggling business.

Although Threads launched as a standalone app, users can log in using their Instagram credentials and follow the same accounts, potentially making it an easy addition to the existing habits of Instagram's more than 2 billion monthly active users. According to experts, investors can't help but get excited at the prospect of Meta actually having a "Twitter killer".

Like Twitter, the app contains short text messages that users can tag, repost and reply to, although it does not have the ability to send direct messages. Messages can be up to 500 characters long and include links, photos and videos lasting up to five minutes, according to Meta's blog.

Meta shares rose 3% on Wednesday ahead of the launch, outpacing the rise of rival tech companies.

BITCOIN SUPPORT FUND

Dear clients,

Bitcoin reached its highest level in 13 months on Thursday, rising 3.28% to $31,500.

The world's largest cryptocurrency recently found support thanks to plans by fund managers, including BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager — to launch a US-registered spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Nasdaq has reapplied to list BlackRocks' ETF, according to a statement released on Monday, after the US securities regulator raised concerns about the initial applications.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected about 30 applications for exchange-traded funds over the past decade. However the BlackRock Inc. initiative has ignited interest, and a flurry of new applications and amendments to existing offerings has followed.

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR JUNE

Dear clients,

On July 7, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.

We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:

Strong employment growth in the service sector — the biggest contributor to the US economy — signals positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the American dollar and negative for equity indices, as it leaves the Fed with no choice but to continue its policy of raising interest rates. On Friday consider buying USDZAR, USDCHF and selling AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #SP500, #NQ100.

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