FreshForex News

[Yvri_volkov]

THE CALM BEFORE THE SWARM?

Dear traders!

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Monday as investors are cautious ahead of fresh economic data from top consumers in the United States and China this week, although an expected drop in crude supplies from Saudi Arabia and Russia capped losses.

Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.7%, to $77.92 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.31 a barrel, also down 55 cents, or 0.7%.

Factory prices in China fell in June at the fastest pace in seven years, government data showed on Monday, as the pace of economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy slowed.

Oil prices rose more than 4% last week to their highest levels since May, climbing for a second straight week after the world's biggest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, pledged to deepen supply cuts in August.

Experts believe market volatility is fueled by the ongoing tug-of-war between concerns about demand controls by Western economies and OPEC's supply control strategies, affecting the delicate balance of the oil market.

Non-OPEC+ supply is keeping pace with global demand, JPMorgan analysts said in a note, adding that OPEC+ needs to deepen production cuts by another 700,000 bpd in the second half of the year on top of the announced cuts and extend them to 2024.

THE СASTLING OF NASDAQ 100

Dear clients,

Shares of Apple, Microsoft and other heavyweights fell on Monday after Nasdaq Inc said it intends to rebalance the Nasdaq 100 index to eliminate "over-concentration."

Apple's market capitalization fell 1.1% to $2.967 trillion, after surpassing the $3 trillion threshold for the first time on June 30. Shares of Alphabet and Amazon fell more than 2%, while Microsoft and Tesla fell more than 1%.

Wall Street's most expensive stocks declined after Nasdaq said late Friday that it would conduct a "special rebalancing" of the index to "eliminate excessive concentration in the index by reallocating weightings."

The adjustment will be based on shares outstanding as of July 3, and the changes will be announced July 14 and take effect before the market opens July 24.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

WHAT'S IN THE NEWS? TIPS FOR A SUCCESSFUL NEWS TRADING

Dear clients,

News are fundamental element of trading and should be treated accordingly. This time, we'll be looking for the best approach in news trading.

Join us on July 12 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

TRADING SIGNALS: JUNE INFLATION IN THE U.S.

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help address one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates. Belief in lower rates has driven bond yields lower, supporting giant tech and growth stocks that have exposure to broad stock indexes.

What to expect this month, our expert explain:

The market is expecting US inflation to fall 0.9 pp to 3.1%, but the final figure could be above consensus forecast on the back of a strong labor market, as job and wage growth has always kept inflation high in the past. On Wednesday, consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR and selling #NQ100, AUDUSD.

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[uncle.gober]

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[Yvri_volkov]

DEEP DIVE. THE DOLLAR'S BIGGEST DROP IN A YEAR

Dear clients,

The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than a year on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer price growth slowed in June, indicating the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates only one more time this year.

The dollar index fell to 100.54, the lowest since April 2022, and was last down 1% to 100.55, the biggest daily decline since early February.

Following the inflation report, the dollar also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015. It was last down 1.3% to 0.8675 francs, having previously fallen to a session low of 0.8660, the lowest since the Swiss National Bank de-pegged the Swiss currency in January 2015.

Data showed that U.S. core consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June, compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise. The monthly increase in core prices was the smallest since August 2021. On an annualized basis, the core U.S. CPI rose 4.8%, below market expectations for a 5% increase. It was the lowest annualized gain in more than two years.

U.S. rate futures continue to show traders overwhelmingly expect a quarter-point increase in the discount rate, to the 5.25%-5.5% range, at the Fed's July 25-26 meeting, but the probability of another rate hike before the end of the year is now around 25%, down from around 35% before the report.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED. A TECH STARTUP FROM ELON MUSK

Dear clients,

Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk launched his long-sought artificial intelligence startup xAI on Wednesday, unveiling a team made up of engineers from the very large U.S. tech companies he hopes to challenge in his quest to create an alternative to ChatGPT.

The startup will be led by Musk himself, who has repeatedly stated that the development of artificial intelligence should be put on hold and that the sector needs to be regulated. Musk has repeatedly voiced concerns that AI could lead to "civilizational destruction."

On Wednesday night on Twitter Spaces, Musk outlined his plan to create safer AI. Instead of explicitly programming morality into its AI, he said, xAI will seek to create an AI that is "as curious as possible."

"If it tries to understand the true nature of the universe, that will be the best I can come up with in terms of AI safety," Musk said. "I think he will be in favor of humanity from the standpoint that humanity is much more interesting than non-humanity."

Musk's new company is separate from X Corp but will work closely with Twitter, Tesla and other companies, according to its official website.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

CHARGING AHEAD: TESLA'S NEW SUCCESSES

Dear clients,

Tesla's strategy of boosting sales by lowering prices probably led to its strongest revenue growth in five quarters, while profitability fell to a three-year low in the April-June quarter.

Since late last year, the Elon Musk-led electric car maker has launched a price war to stimulate demand and stifle competition from older automakers such as Ford Motor and Chinese rivals including BYD.

Tesla is expected to report on Wednesday that gross margins fell to 18.9% in the second quarter, according to 19 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. That's down from 20.2% in the previous quarter and 25.9% a year earlier.

With electric car sales slowing, Tesla has been aggressively trying to capture a bigger share of the U.S. charger market in an effort to diversify its revenue streams. It has entered into agreements with companies such as Ford Motor and General Motors to use its North American Charging Standard (NACS), allowing its market value to more than double to $880 billion this year. Following these partnerships, several charging companies have announced their intention to adopt Tesla's standard.

While this will not contribute much to second-quarter revenue, which is expected to grow 45.2% to $24.59 billion, analysts predict it will significantly boost the company's earnings going forward.

"IT'S NOT SO BAD": GOLDMAN SACHS ON POSSIBLE US RECESSION

Dear clients,

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said on Monday that the bank is lowering the probability of a US recession starting in the next 12 months to 20%, down from its previous forecast of 25%.

"The main reason for our downgrade is that recent data have reinforced our confidence that a decline in inflation to an acceptable level will not require a recession," the bank said in a research note.

Market expectations for a so-called "hard landing" - a scenario in which interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve drive the economy into recession - were recently challenged by data showing consumer and manufacturing price inflation slowed in June. Slowing inflation is likely to lead to looser monetary policy in the future. Meanwhile, economic activity remains resilient despite the significant increase in borrowing costs since the Fed's rate hike campaign began in early 2022.

As for the current inversion of the Treasury yield curve, which is generally seen as a harbinger of an impending recession, Hatzius said it reflects and simultaneously confirms "overly pessimistic" economic forecasts.

An inverted yield curve usually signals that the Fed will cut rates to stimulate the economy. However, according to a Goldman Sachs economist, there is a "plausible path" for the Fed to cut interest rates just because of lower inflation.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

CHANGE IN CASHBACK PROGRAM CONDITIONS

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CRYPTO TOP UP BONUSES CONTINUE!

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LINING UP: NEW CRYPTOCURRENCY ETFS UNDER REVIEW

Dear clients,

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted for review spot bitcoin fund applications from six companies, including BlackRock, marking the first step in the process of deciding whether to approve or disapprove the latest batch of proposals.

The SEC also formally recognised applications by Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity and Invesco to create similar spot bitcoin fund ETFs, with those proposals published in the Federal Register on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The SEC had previously rejected dozens of applications to create spot bitcoin ETFs, saying the proposals did not meet fraud and investor protection standards. But Nasdaq, on which BlackRock proposed to list its ETF, said earlier this month that it was going to address those concerns by partnering with Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, to control trading on the underlying bitcoin market.

The first bitcoin futures ETF was approved in October 2021, helping the volatile bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69 000 in November 2021.

 

[mas_pluto]

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[uncle.gober]

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[Yvri_volkov]

LOOKING FRESH, PARTNER

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THE DISCOUNT MINE. REDUCED SPREADS ON GOLD AND SILVER TRADING

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BAD APPLE

Dear clients,

Apple on Thursday predicted that its sales slump would continue into the current quarter, sending its stock tumbling despite beating Wall Street forecasts for sales and earnings in its fiscal third quarter.

Apple shares fell about 2% after the company predicted that the sales decline could be the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. Profit growth in the period was led by higher services sales, but lower-than-expected sales of Apple's best-known device, the iPhone, did not satisfy investors. Company executives said iPhone sales would improve in the fourth quarter, but didn't say by how much.

Apple is in a tricky position: its entrenched iPhone is fighting for share with Android rivals in a mature market, and its next big product, the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset announced in June, has yet to get into the hands of consumers.

Apple said sales in its fiscal third quarter ended July 1 fell 1.4% to $81.8 bln and earnings per share rose 5% to $1.26. That exceeded analysts' expectations of $81.69 bln and $1.19 per share, according to Refinitiv's IBES data. Weak iPhone sales were balanced by strong sales in the services segment, which includes Apple TV+, as well as sales in China, which grew 8% year-over-year.

At the same time, Apple managed to outperform the weakest smartphone market in China in a decade. According to Counterpoint Research, total smartphone sales in China fell 8% in the second calendar quarter, hitting the lowest level since 2014. Apple CEO Tim Cook, on the other hand, said that iPhone sales in China had "doubled" and that sales in other segments in China were also strong.

This helped Apple boost sales in the Greater China region to $15.76 bln, up from $14.60 bln in the same quarter last year.

According to Refinitiv, iPhone sales totalled $39.67 bln, below analysts' expectations of $39.91 bln. Cook said the number of iPhone units reached a new high, but did not provide any figures.

 

[mas_pluto]

Setiap broker pastinya memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing. Maka dari itulah sebagai trader seharusnya dimanfaatkan segala fasilitasnya, dan juga banyak berlatih, agar nantinya trading bisa berjalan dengan lancar dan diuntungkan bersama broker Tickmill.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

AMAZON'S CLOUD NINE

Dear clients,

Amazon.com shares rose more than 8% on Friday on signs that the company's growth engines, e-commerce and cloud technology, are doing well in a volatile economy, helping the broader market fend off Apple's 4.8% drop after iPhone sales slumped.

Reports summarised a positive earnings season for most major US tech companies, from Google to Meta, thanks to a rebound in the digital advertising market and increased demand for cloud services after nearly a year of decline.

Shares in retail giant Amazon closed at a near one-year high and boosted its market value by more than $109 bil.The better-than-expected performance of Amazon's cloud business in the second quarter also boosted other members of the cherished "trillion-dollar club", with Microsoft and Alphabet up more than 2%. Wall Street analysts said Amazon's above-forecast quarterly earnings and sales showed that both of its key businesses can grow together after two years of "nasty surprises."

According to Refinitiv, at least 26 analysts - nearly half of those analysing the company's stock — raised their price forecasts for Amazon, bringing the median forecast to $170. That represents a gain of nearly 32% for Amazon stock, which is up nearly 50% so far this year.

The surge in Amazon stock reflects analysts raising their estimates for its earnings. At $139.57, the stock is valued at 47 times consensus earnings per share in 2024, according to Refinitiv's updated estimates.

ISSUED IN DIGITAL. STABLECOIN BY PAYPAL

Dear clients,

On Monday, payments giant PayPal announced the launch of a dollar-stablecoin, becoming the first major financial technology company to adopt digital currencies for payments and transfers.

The announcement by PayPal, whose shares rose 2.66% on Monday, reflects a show of confidence in the troubled cryptocurrency industry, which has struggled with regulation over the past 12 months, exacerbated by a string of high-profile crashes.

While "stable coins" have been around for quite some time, they have yet to successfully embed themselves into the mainstream consumer payments ecosystem.

Instead, consumers mostly use stablecoins as a means of trading other cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether. The world's largest stablecoin is Tether, followed by USD Coin, issued by cryptocurrency provider Circle.

Previous attempts by major mainstream companies to launch stablecoins have met stiff resistance from financial regulators and politicians. Plans by Meta, Facebook back then, to launch the Libra stablecoin in 2019 were scrapped after regulators raised concerns that it could disrupt global financial stability.

Since then, a number of major economies, from the United Kingdom to the European Union, have drafted rules governing the circulation of stablecoins. The EU rules will come into force in June 2024.

PayPal's stablecoin, dubbed PayPal USD, is backed by dollar deposits and short-term U.S. Treasuries and will be issued by Paxos Trust Co. It will be gradually made available to PayPal customers in the US.

The token will be exchangeable for US dollars at any time and can also be used to buy and sell other cryptocurrencies that PayPal offers on its platform, including bitcoin.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: GOLD, SILVER

Dear clients,

According to the World Gold Council, the demand for gold is steadily decreasing, thus shifting the price dynamics. This time, we'll be looking at precious metals, their current status and future movements.

Join us on August 9 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

 

[uncle.gober]

Setiap broker memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing. Maka dari itulah jika trader sudah memilih broker yang tepat dan juga aman, maka trader akan bisa melakukan perdagangan forex secara optimal dan bisa menjalankan perdagangan forex dengan maksimal di broker Tickmill.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

TRADING SIGNALS: JULY INFLATION IN THE USA

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, our expert comments:

The market is expecting US inflation to rise by 0.3 p.p. to 3.3% on the back of unemployment falling to a multi-year low and wages continuing to grow at a strong pace, allowing Americans to increase consumer spending. Rising inflation is negative for the US stock market. On Thursday, consider selling #NQ100, #SP500, #Barric, #Amgen.

Save up to 50% on precious metals spreads and support your investments with a protective asset!

A PLEASANT SURPRISE OR AN UNNECESSARY VARIABLE? UK ECOMOMICAL DATA

Dear clients,

The UK economy unexpectedly showed growth in the second quarter, laying the groundwork for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England, but it remains the only major economy that has yet to recover the levels that preceded the economic crisis of late 2019.

Official data released on Friday showed the economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter, contradicting economists' early forecasts. The data led to a sharp rise in sterling against the US dollar and euro.

The strong figures have bolstered bets that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates, as it emphasised this month that the strength of the economy is one of the factors on which it will base its decision. The central bank itself had forecast the economy to grow at 0.1% in the second quarter.

Now the Bank of England has a new headache — they may well have paused interest rate rises in the near future, but with such data it is much harder to do so, experts say.

British government bond yields rose after the market opened while investors were digesting the data.

Manufacturing recorded its best quarter since the start of 2019, aside from the initial rebound after the first COVID-19 lockout of 2020, with output up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter. Business investment also rose 3.4% for the quarter.

"The measures we are taking to tackle inflation are starting to work, which means we are laying the solid foundations we need to grow the economy," said Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Although Britain, unlike the eurozone, has so far managed to avoid recession, the data confirmed the relatively poor performance of its economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the end of the second quarter, the British economy was 0.2% below year-end 2019 levels, compared to growth of 0.2% in Germany, 1.7% in France, 2.2% in Italy and 6.2% in the US.

GROWTH AND ACHIEVEMENTS. NEW FRESHFOREX AWARD

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PROCRUSTEAN MARKET. THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY REPORT

Dear clients,

OPEC+ supply cuts could lead to lower oil inventories for the rest of this year, which could lead to further price increases before economic factors limit global demand growth in 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

The IEA said that if current OPEC+ targets are maintained, oil inventories could fall by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the third quarter and 1.2 million bpd in the fourth quarter, "which could lead to further price increases".

"The deepening of OPEC+ supply cuts has collided with improving macroeconomic sentiment and record-high global oil demand," the Paris-based energy organisation said in its monthly oil market report.

Demand growth is forecast to slow sharply to 1 million bpd next year, the IEA said, citing weak macroeconomic conditions, a fading post-pandemic economic recovery and the growing use of electric vehicles.

The IEA's forecast for demand growth is down 150,000 bpd from last month and is at odds with OPEC, which on Thursday maintained its forecast that oil demand in 2024 will grow by a much larger 2.25 million bpd.

For 2023, the IEA and OPEC views are less far apart.

The IEA expects demand to grow by 2.2 million bpd in 2023, fuelled by summer air travel, increased oil use in the power sector and rising petrochemical activity in China. OPEC expects growth of 2.44 million bpd.

The projections show an average of 102.2 million bpd of demand this year, with China accounting for more than 70% of the growth, despite concerns about the economic health of the world's top oil importer.

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday as concerns about China's fragile economic recovery and a stronger dollar dampened seven-week gains amid supply cuts from OPEC+ production cuts.

Reflecting the supply cuts, the price spread between first- and second-month Brent crude was unchanged on Monday after settling at 67 cents on Friday, the widest since March.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

UNARTIFICIAL VALUATION: NVIDIA'S QUARTERLY REPORT

Dear clients,

Nvidia's strong quarterly earnings forecast met Wall Street's high expectations on Wednesday, sending a host of artificial intelligence-related stocks soaring and adding momentum to the stalled recovery of the U.S. stock market.

Following the signal, Nvidia shares jumped nearly 10% to a record high of $516, boosting the company's market value by about $110bn to $1.27 trillion and cementing its lead as the world's most expensive chip maker.

That came after the company posted a fiscal third-quarter earnings forecast that exceeded analysts' expectations, helped by growing demand for its high-end chips that power much of the world's major artificial intelligence technology.

Nvidia's additional $25 billion share buyback announced on Wednesday came amid a stock that has already tripled this year, making it the first trillion-dollar chip business in history, as investors bet Nvidia will be a key beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom.

Everyone from AI startups to major cloud service providers such as Microsoft are keen to get their hands on more Nvidia chips. Demand from China is also on the rise, as companies there place rush orders to stock up on chips before further restrictions on U.S. exports take effect.

S&P 500 E-Mini futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq E-Mini futures climbed 0.9%, suggesting Wall Street is likely to open higher on Thursday. Investors had been awaiting Nvidia's earnings report this week as a potential spark for renewed gains in the sluggish U.S. stock market.

Nvidia shares have more than tripled this year as the chipmaker is at the centre of a rally in technology stocks fuelled by optimism about the potential of artificial intelligence. Nvidia's forecast added to investor optimism. Following the report's release, the value of shares in big tech companies related to artificial intelligence increased by more than $70bn, in addition to the value of Nvidia's stock.

Nvidia expects third-quarter revenue to be around $16bn, plus or minus 2%. Analysts polled by Refinitiv on average expected $12.61bn.

FOOT OFF THE PEDAL. THE ECB AND THE COMING RATES

Dear clients,

According to eight sources with direct knowledge of the discussions, European Central Bank policymakers are increasingly concerned about the deteriorating growth prospects for the economy and, while the discussion remains open, the idea of holding off on rate hikes is gaining momentum.

The ECB has raised rates at each of its last nine meetings in a bid to rein in price growth, most recently on July 27 when it left open the choice of its next meeting in September, with policymakers divided between a pause and further tightening.

Talks with eight policymakers in Europe and on the sidelines of the US Federal Reserve's symposium in Jackson Hole suggest proponents of a "pause" are growing stronger after key economic indicators over the past six weeks have come in below expectations, suggesting a recession has become likely.

Several sources said the odds were evenly split between a rate hike and a pause, while some said a pause was more likely. But none of the sources said they thought a rate hike was the most likely outcome, even if that was their preference.

That's markedly different from six weeks ago, when a rate hike in September was still considered the most likely outcome. However, all sources agreed that even in the event of a pause, the ECB would have to make it clear that its work is not yet done and that further policy tightening may be needed.

They said it could take several months, possibly until early 2024, to be sure that eurozone inflation, now at 5.3%, is moving towards the 2% target.

The sources also agreed that the discussion remains open and nothing will be decided until the next inflation figure on August 31 and the ECB's new economic forecasts. The next ECB meeting will be held on September 14.

Markets are currently split between the chances of a rate hike in September and a pause, but expect the ECB to still go for a final rate hike of 25 basis points to 4% at some point later this year.

 

[mas_pluto]

Setiap broker memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing. Maka dari itulah jika trader sudah memilih broker yang tepat, langkah selanjutnya trader manfaatkan segala fasilitas yang sudah disediakannya. Ini dilakukan agar bisa lebih paham dan bisa mendapatkan pengetahuan tentang pasar forex bersama broker Tickmill.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

IN THE PURSUIT OF PROFIT. MARATHON OF VOLATILE INSTRUMENTS

Dear clients,

The market is frozen waiting for a new push, but is it a reason for us to slow down?

We are launching the volatility marathon; during the week you will be presented with a selection of the most profitable instruments that have already proved themselves in trading.

Signals will be published from 7:30 GMT on our social networks and Telegram channel.

Forwards to success!

"UNTIL THE JOB IS DONE." JEROME POWELL'S SPEECH IN JACKSON HOLE

Dear clients,

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates once again to bring down still too high inflation and promised caution at upcoming meetings, noting both the progress made in easing price pressures and the risks posed by the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy.

While Powell's statements weren't as hawkish as a year ago at the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, they were still quite sharp, and investors now see another rate hike before the end of the year as more likely.

"We will proceed cautiously in deciding whether to tighten policy further or, conversely, to keep the rate unchanged and await further data," Powell said in his keynote speech. "The Fed's objective is to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and we will do so."

The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation at the Fed's preferred rate has fallen to 3.3% from a peak of 7% last summer. While the decline was a "welcome development," Powell believes inflation "remains too high."

"We are prepared to raise rates further, if appropriate, and intend to keep policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving steadily downward toward our target," he said.

However, given "signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected," including "particularly strong" consumer spending and a "possible recovery" in the housing sector, Powell said that above-trend growth "could jeopardise further progress on inflation and warrant further monetary tightening."

His speech showed the Fed struggling with conflicting signals from the economy, with inflation reportedly slowing strongly without much cost to the economy — a good outcome, but one that raised the possibility that Fed policy is not tight enough to finish the job.

Unlike last year's closely watched speech at a conference organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City — in which Powell warned in stark terms of impending policy tightening — Powell did not talk about the coming "pain" for the public caused by further policy tightening.

But he also didn't make it clear that a rate cut was imminent, nor did he hint, as some policymakers have done, at the need to adjust rates downward once inflation becomes more sustainable.

At the end of the day, futures contracts tied to the Fed's discount rate estimated the probability of a rate hike in September at just under 20%, but the odds of the rate ending the year in the 5.5%-5.75% range, a quarter point above the current range, were higher than the 50% probability. The yield on two-year Treasuries ended the day at 5.08%, the highest since June 2007.

Powell said it is difficult to accurately gauge how high above the "neutral" interest rate the current base rate is, and therefore difficult to gauge how much the Fed is restraining growth and inflation.

Powell reiterated what has become the Fed's standard diagnosis of inflation progress: easing goods inflation and declining housing inflation are "on track," but concerns that continued consumer spending on a wide range of services and a tight labour market may make a return to 2% difficult.

Recent declines in measures of core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, "are welcomed, but two months of good data is just the beginning of what will be needed to build confidence in a sustained decline in inflation," Powell emphasised.

Although Powell's tone was not as harsh as last year, when he dispelled market perceptions in very blunt terms that the Fed at the time was nearing the end of its rate hike cycle and would cut rates before the end of this year. Nevertheless, it was clear that he did not want to discard any options.

Powell ended his remarks Friday with almost the same phrase he used last year in Jackson Hole: "We're going to keep at it until the job is done."

"ATTENDRE ET ESPÉRER". CHINESE STOCKS RALLY

Dear clients,

Chinese stocks led the rally in Asian equities on Tuesday as investors welcomed Beijing's efforts to support markets, while bonds rose and the dollar declined amid possible softening in U.S. data.

MSCI, the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares besides Japan, rose 1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up more than 2% and mainland China's blue chips (.CSI300) were up 1.5%.

In recent days, China has halved stamp duty on share trading, relaxed margin lending rules, slowed new listings and approved new retail funds, at least signalling a determination to stabilise the market.

And while foreign investors sold their shares on Monday on an initial bounce after the measures were announced over the weekend, they net bought about $500 million worth of Chinese stocks on Tuesday, perhaps in the hope that more substantial relief would follow.

"We doubt that these policies alone can change confidence or determine the direction of the market," Bank of America analysts said.

"Financial markets are merely a reflection of the underlying economy, and we need policies that can address the underlying economic fundamentals .... In our view, the next 2-3 weeks are still an important window for policy action."

Shares in Hong Kong were led by shares in China's struggling Country Garden and electric car maker BYD, which reported a threefold increase in first-half profit.

TIME TO COUNT THE CHICKEN. NON-FARM PAYROLL REPORT

Dear clients,

Nonfarm Payrolls report is the indicator that shows the change in the number of employed in the US non-farm sector. This time we'll be looking at the report, how it reflects on the market and the way to trade on it.

Join us on August 30 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.

 

[Yvri_volkov]

SAVED BY THE GAVEL: BITCOIN'S STARK REVERSAL

Dear clients,

Bitcoin's gains from a U.S. court ruling bolstering the future prospects of funds targeting retail investors saved the cryptocurrency from a disappointing month and instilled renewed optimism about its long-term prospects.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's rejection of Grayscale Investments' proposal was "arbitrary and prejudicial", a federal court said Tuesday, giving the crypto asset manager a landmark victory.

The cryptocurrency surged more than 7% on the news, setting the course for its best day since March and cutting some of the heavy losses suffered over the summer.

Plagued by lower demand for risky assets caused by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in volatility during quiet summer trading, bitcoin was on track for its worst month since November 2022 before the ruling, when confusion reigned following the liquidation of the FTX exchange. Its monthly losses are now around 5%.

Investors said Grayscale's victory will likely now factor into future SEC rulings on spot bitcoin fund ETFs filed by several major financial firms this year, including the world's largest asset manager BlackRock.

The emergence of spot bitcoin ETFs could help the cryptocurrency industry tap into a large amount of previously untapped funds from retail investors, which in turn would help boost the bitcoin price.

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR AUGUST

Dear clients,

On September 1, we are expecting the publication of data on Nonfarm Payroll, a measure of U.S. manufacturing employment. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What indicators are expected this time, let's find out from our expert:

The leading employment indicators from ADP and ISM point to the release of weak Non-Farm Employment data, which is negative for the US dollar, as this situation allows the US Fed to keep interest rates at the current level. On Friday, consider selling USDZAR, USDCAD and buying AUDUSD, XAUUSD.

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CAUSE AND EFFECT: GRADUAL RECOVERY OF THE OIL MARKET

Dear clients,

Oil prices were about to break a two-week losing streak as they rose for the fourth consecutive session on Friday on the back of supply cuts and expectations that the OPEC+ group of oil producers will extend production cuts until the end of the year.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $83.84 a barrel, while Brent crude was up 26 cents, also up 0.3%, to $87.09 a barrel as of 0605 GMT. For the week, WTI is up more than 5% and Brent is up about 3%.

Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to extend a voluntary oil production cut of 1 million barrels a day for October, adding to cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"We continue to expect production cuts to be extended and prices above $90 per barrel (on a sustained basis) will be required to attract OPEC supply to the market, as well as incentivize U.S. shale oil producers to increase drilling activity," National Australia Bank said in a client note on Friday.

U.S. crude inventories fell by a more-than-expected 10.6 million barrels last week, government data showed Wednesday. Commercial crude inventories have fallen by 34 million barrels since mid-July.

Traders and investors often view changes in U.S. inventories as a proxy for changes in the balance of global production and consumption, and spot prices and quotes may rise if inventories continue to deplete.

"Signs of increased demand have also been evident in the commodities market, with implied gasoline demand rising for the first time in three weeks," ANZ said in a research note on Friday.

A weakening US dollar, which looks set to end a six-week winning streak, also helped prices. A stronger dollar puts pressure on demand for oil, making the commodity more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

A survey showing renewed growth in Chinese factory activity and Beijing's measures to support China's weakened housing market also helped boost oil prices on Friday as traders hoped it would stimulate demand in the world's second-largest oil-consuming country.

 

[mas_pluto]

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[Yvri_volkov]

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[Yvri_volkov]

RATIO'D. UPDATED FORECASTS FROM MOODY'S

Dear clients,

Ratings agency Moody's on Friday raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2023 but lowered its outlook for China next year, noting that while the risk of a U.S. recession has declined, China's problems are mounting.

"We have raised our forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.9% in 2023 from 1.1% in our May forecast, recognising the strong underlying economic momentum," Moody's said in a report.

The agency, which is currently the only Big Three agency still holding a "AAA" rating for the U.S. after a downgrade by Fitch last month, maintained its 2024 economic growth forecast at 1%, saying high interest rates will drag on the economy.

"We believe it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a sustained decline in inflation to the 2.0% target while current economic conditions persist," Moody's said in a statement. "In our view, several quarters of below-trend growth are needed to prevent overheating."

On the other hand, the agency said China faces "significant growth challenges" stemming from weak business and consumer confidence amid economic and political uncertainty, ongoing problems in the real estate sector and an aging working-age population.

Moody's maintained its growth forecast for this year at 5%, but cut its 2024 outlook to 4.0% from 4.5% previously. China's rating is at A1 with a stable outlook, four notches below the U.S.' top rating.

"Data from China suggest that the economic recovery from the prolonged zero-rate policy remains muted, as the momentum for renewed growth seen in March, April and May appears to be waning," Moody's said in the report.

"We believe low consumer confidence is restraining household spending, and economic and political uncertainty will continue to weigh on business decisions."

NO MIRACLE IN SIGHT. ECONOMIC DATA FROM CHINA

Dear clients,

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as weak service sector data renewed fears of a faltering post-pandemic Chinese economy.

The MSCI was down 0.65% at 511.63, moving away from 515.37, the highest level since 11 August, which it reached on Monday.

Futures indicated that the gloomy mood is likely to spread to Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.21%, Germany's DAX down 0.20% and the FTSE futures down 0.29%.

The recent rally in Chinese equities, fuelled by a series of government measures aimed at supporting the weakening economy, is quickly fading. The CSI 300 blue-chip index fell 0.58% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.5% after these markets recorded their best day in over a month on Monday.

Optimism quickly faded after a private sector survey on Tuesday showed that China's service sector activity grew at the slowest pace in eight months in August as weak demand continues to haunt the world's second-largest economy and stimulus measures failed to significantly revive consumption.

Nevertheless, investors are hopeful that Beijing's drip-feed of stimulus will be enough to stabilise the Chinese economy.

In a rare piece of good news for China's crisis-hit property sector, a source close to Country Garden said the company made interest payments on two dollar bonds just as the grace period was due to end on Tuesday.

On Friday, China's largest private property developer received approval from onshore creditors to extend a 3.9 billion yuan ($536 million) private bond.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: BTC, ETH, XRP

Dear clients,

The world of crypto is seeing some hard ups and downs lately, with both Grayscale ETF approval and SpaceX dumping their crypto assets. This time, we'll be looking Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, what's going on with them now and what may happen further on.

Join us on September 6 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.