Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS RENEW THE DOWNTREND AND THREATEN KEY SUPPORT
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair tumbled during the first part of yesterday without any apparent reason other than the technical aspect and later in the day, the surprisingly better value of the US New Home Sales added more steam to the US Dollar, renewing the downtrend.

Technical Outlook

The pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and quickly moved below 1.2860. More sellers joined once the US housing data was released and now the pair is most likely headed for the key support at 1.2750. Once this level is reached we are likely to see a retracement in the form of a move north or at least some ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the American Durable Goods Orders scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. These types of goods (with a life expectancy or at least 3 years) are usually purchased in times of economic expansion and an increased value suggests that people are confident in the overall economic situation. It also means that producers will have to increase their activity to satisfy demand. The expected change is -17.7%, a huge drop from the previous 22.6%; such a drastic value would most likely weaken the greenback.

GBP/USD

The bears made their presence known yesterday and managed to take the pair lower, a behavior mostly attributed to the better than expected value of the US New Home Sales.

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is the first barrier for the bears before 1.6250 can be reached. If the pair will move below this short term dynamic support, we are likely to see an extended move lower; otherwise the bulls will take price into the resistance located at 1.6460.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Realized Sales survey which is based on opinions of wholesalers and retailers regarding the current level of sales volume. The anticipated value is 34, a drop from last month’s 37 and we may see Pound weakness if this forecast comes true; however, the indicator usually has a medium impact.
Later in the day, at 12:40 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak at a Conference in Wales. Huge moves are not expected but the chances of sudden, strong moves increase whenever a head of a Central Bank speaks so caution is recommended.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – THE LAST RELEASE OF A VOLATILE WEEK
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears scored a major victory and broke key support yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength generated by a positive forecast made by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Corp. and Morgan Stanley based on speculation of a near-future rate increase.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2750 is indeed an important development which will probably bring in more sellers but for the time being, the pair is likely to show some sideways movement or even small retracements to the upside. For today we expect price to remain rather close to 1.2750, moving above and below it, with the first downside barrier being yesterday’s low at 1.2696.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the Final version of the American Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 4.6% compared with the previous 4.2% and although this version has the lowest impact out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), strong movement might occur if the value will surprise in any way.

GBP/USD

US Dollar strength took the pair slightly lower but our predicted target at 1.6250 was not touched and throughout the day price action was mixed and mostly ranging.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.6250 support is very close to current price. This makes us still believe that 1.6250 will be touched today or in the near future; if the bulls can take the pair higher, this level is a place where they could show their willingness. A break of the level mentioned above would suggest that lower prices will follow and the next support will be located at 1.6160.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news announcements and price action will be influenced by the American GDP and by technical factors.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION DETERMINES TODAY’S BIAS
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bears were in control for the entire day and managed to break minor support by taking the pair to new lows. The Final version of the American GDP came out with the anticipated value which was better than the previous, a fact which contributed to US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook

Although the downtrend is at full strength, the Relative Strength Index is in oversold territory on hourly, four-hour and daily charts, a thing which makes a bullish pullback very probable. The zone around 1.2695 will probably act as resistance while support is located at 1.2660 and today’s direction will be mainly influenced by German inflation data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be released; this is the main inflation gauge for the German economy and has a hefty influence on European inflation. Today’s expected change is -0.1%, lower than last month’s 0.0% and this negative change will probably weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

After a brief bullish move which found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair dropped for the rest of the day and the bears finished last week in control.

Technical Outlook

Our predicted target at 1.6250 was reached and now a bounce-or-break scenario is in effect (for the time being 1.6250 is not considered clearly broken). A break of the level would make 1.6160 the next destination while a bounce higher will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index has reached the 30 level on an hourly chart but on a four hour chart it still has room to move down so we cannot consider this a clear oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will reveal the value of the Net Lending to Individuals today at 8:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the change in value of credit approved towards consumers and usually higher values suggest optimism. Today’s expected value is 3.1B, a drop from last month’s 3.4B.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: UNDERLYING US DOLLAR STRENGTH DRIVES PRICE LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take the pair higher yesterday on the back of better than expected German inflation. Support was briefly touched but no serious attempts to break it were made.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 sits in front of the pair’s descent but the US Dollar continues to have respectable strength and we believe that a break of the mentioned level will occur in the near future. The downtrend is intact and going strong so yesterday’s bullish move must be regarded as a simple retracement or pullback against the trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s CPI Flash Estimate is today’s main event for the Euro; this indicator is the main gauge of inflation and as we know, inflation is a major concern of the ECB’s because the current level is considered too low. The time of release is 09:00 am GMT and the expected value is 0.3%, a drop from last month’s 0.4%, a fact which will affect negatively the Euro if it comes true.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey is released. The forecast is 92.2, a slight decrease from last month’s 92.4. Since confidence among consumers is closely correlated with consumer spending, a higher number for today’s release will most likely generate more Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

The Net Lending to Individuals was close to the anticipated value and the release didn’t create a lot of movement. For the entire day the pair remained below 1.6250 and movement was ranging.

Technical Outlook

Although the bears weren’t very convincing yesterday and the pair mostly ranged near 1.6250, we anticipate a more serious descent today. The US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment lately, gaining against almost all of its counterparts and from a technical point of view, 1.6250 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone which acts as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Current Account is announced today at 08:30 am GMT and it’s anticipated to change from the previous -18.5B to -16.9B. The indicator represents the difference between imported and exported goods and higher values suggest that currency demand is increasing. Price action today will be influenced by the American Consumer Confidence as well.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: NEW LOWS REACHED. THE PROBABILITY OF RETRACEMENTS HAS INCREASED
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro was negatively affected yesterday by inflation that continues to decline and this fact, coupled with underlying US Dollar strength, generated another strong move south.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 was broken decisively yesterday and the Euro is heading for a 2 year low against the Dollar. It is clear that bears are in control of the pair but a bullish pullback against the main trend is expected, considering the fact that the downtrend is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is trading in oversold territory on more than one time frame. The first support is located at 1.2570 (yesterday’s low), while potential resistance sits at 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing will release their version of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is anticipated to remain almost unchanged (206K) from last month’s 204K. This privately owned company releases an early employment report which tries to mimic the Government data which will be announced Friday and the impact differs from month to month but higher numbers are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Current Account posted a disappointing value, weakening the Pound and driving the pair lower, in close vicinity of support.

Technical Outlook

Price is capped to the upside by the resistance at 1.6250 while to the downside support sits at 1.6160. The pair’s last encounter with this support generated a strong bullish move and the same is possible now, but a lot depends on the British Manufacturing data and American Employment. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled downwards, increasing the chances of another push lower.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT but the anticipated change is very small: 52.6 from last month’s 52.5. This is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers lead to a stronger Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET PREPARES FOR THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE
Posted →Technical News

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was difficult to trade as the ADP Employment data posted better than expected values, causing the US Dollar to strengthen but later in the day it was weakened by a worse than expected value of a Manufacturing survey.



Technical Outlook

Price moved up and down yesterday without clear direction but we can notice the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still providing good resistance on an hourly chart. It seems like bearish momentum is starting to fade away or at least to decrease in intensity but this can be easily changed by today’s ECB decision regarding the interest rate. The main levels to watch are 1.2660 as resistance and 1.2570 as support but the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current value of 0.05% but we saw before that surprises can happen so we recommend caution at the time of the release and during the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later. During the Conference, President Mario Draghi will read a prepared speech and afterwards will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the Press Conference is known to generate strong volatility and often irregular movement, depending on the President’s answers and attitude.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing data disappointed and the Pound weakened as a result but later in the day price climbed to touch resistance.



Technical Outlook

The touch of 1.6250 resistance resulted in a bounce lower and overall we had a day which was tough to trade on the lower time frames. The important levels for today still remain 1.6160 as support (which was touched yesterday but price couldn’t break it) and 1.6250 as resistance (which combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone).

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month’s 64.0 to 63.7. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector, regarding the current business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus a higher value is usually beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN NON FARM PAYROLLS SET THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE FRIDAY
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB Press Conference and Mario Draghi’s attitude generated mixed reactions and a lot of whipsaws. The interest rate remained unchanged and for the time being resistance is holding.

Technical Outlook

The irregular movement generated by Mario Draghi’s speech took price above 1.2660 resistance but soon after, the Euro weakened and the pair returned below the mentioned level. If the bears will take back control, this is a good place to do so and the first target will be 1.2570. Important US Employment data is released today and this will strongly affect the Dollar, making the technical aspect secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the most important American jobs related indicator is released: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people and higher numbers suggest a thriving economy; an increase is also indicative of future growth in the retail sales sector. Today’s release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 216K, a hefty rise from last month’s 142K.

GBP/USD

Although British Construction data posted a better value than expected, US Dollar strength took the pair lower for almost the entire day and short term support was broken yesterday.

Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the zone surrounding 1.6060 now that previous support was broken and may turn into resistance (1.6160). The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, without being oversold so we are likely to see lower prices especially if the American NFP will show a good reading.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is 59.1, a drop from last month’s 60.5. If the forecast comes true or lower numbers are posted, the Pound will be negatively affected and the pair may descend further.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: SCARCE ECONOMIC DATA SLOWS DOWN PRICE ACTION
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday we saw tremendous US Dollar strength generated by a better than expected value of the Non Farm Payrolls: forecast 216K; actual 248K. The US economy is continuing to post good numbers and this fuels speculation the Fed will increase interest rates before its counterparts.

Technical Outlook

The downtrend is very strong and the Dollar is surrounded by an overall positive sentiment, thus we expect to see the pair go even lower in the near future. The first barrier and possible target is located at 1.2440 but before it can be reached, we are likely to see price visit 1.2570 once again. Today we expect slow movement as no major indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator released today is the German Factory Orders. The scheduled time is 6:00 am GMT and the expected value is -2.4%, a drop from last month’s 4.6%. Higher values suggest increased economic activity and have the potential to strengthen the Euro but the indicator usually has a low-to-medium impact.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened across the board Friday and this was felt by the Pound as well. The pair dropped to break support and the downtrend resumed, creating a new low.

Technical Outlook

Lately the Dollar breaks support levels with ease and the downtrend is going strong, with the next target being 1.5900. The Relative Strength Index is traveling in oversold territory and pullbacks against the main trend are likely to happen before the next support is reached. Potential resistance is located at 1.6060 but today we anticipate a slow day based on the fact that no economic indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major indicator releases for the day, thus the technical aspect will influence price direction.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE POUND FOR MANUFACTURING DATA RELEASE
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Overall the Euro had a bullish day although the German Factory Orders came out with a disappointing value. Price action was mainly affected by the technical aspect and the bears still have a lot of underlying strength.

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index materialized in a bullish pullback against the main trend. However, we consider this just normal market behavior as the downtrend is intact and further descent is likely to occur during the days to come. The current level at 1.2570 may become resistance if we see a bounce lower and the first support is located at 1.2440.

Fundamental Outlook

Today Europe and the United States didn’t schedule any major economic releases thus price direction will be influenced mainly by the technical aspect.

GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day, a fact also generated by the lackluster fundamental scene. Neither support nor resistance was threatened but price retraced slightly higher.

Technical Outlook

Price action was slow but bullish nonetheless and this is a fact which we expect to change today and price to make another attempt to reach the important support located at 1.5900. It’s possible to see a touch of 1.6060 before price will make a run for support, considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is coming out of oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with last month’s 0.3%. Considering that manufacturing is an important part of United Kingdom’s economy, higher values can lead to a stronger Pound.

At 2:00 pm GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. Last month’s value was 0.6% and anything above that will most likely strengthen the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES MAY SPUR SPECULATION ABOUT A RATE HIKE
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved above short term resistance, mostly because a stronger retracement was needed taking into consideration the tremendous drop seen throughout last months. A report regarding German Industrial Production showed disappointing figures, slowing the pair’s ascension.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2660 was touched several times yesterday but the bulls lacked the strength to break it, a fact which shows the underlying strength of the bears and makes us believe that price will resume downwards motion if today resistance is not broken. The first support is located at 1.2580 while the next resistance (if 1.2660 is broken) sits at 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook

Europe doesn’t didn’t schedule any important news releases but the US Dollar will he highly affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are made public at 6:00 pm GMT. The document will contain insights into the reasons which influenced the members’ votes regarding monetary policy and interest rate but more importantly, it may contain hints about a future rate increase. Such hints would fuel speculation about the US Dollar’s next direction and would influence the pair’s movement in a spectacular fashion.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound slowly climbed above short term resistance. British Manufacturing Production disappointed but we attribute yesterday’s movement to trend exhaustion and to technical factors, not to fundamentals.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.6060 was broken but now an important confluence zone sits in front of rising prices. This zone is represented by the level at 1.6160 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above both these types of resistance would show that bulls may be preparing to reverse the downtrend. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic or financial indicators for today and we expect mixed movement ahead of the FOMC release.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE THREATENED. WHAT IS THE ANSWER OF THE BEARS?
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Trading was pretty slow ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the Dollar weakened considerably once the Minutes showed the Fed sees global economic slowdown as a threat to the US economic recovery.

Technical Outlook

The pair quickly climbed at the time of the FOMC release and 1.2750 resistance was reached. Now price is trading above the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while but this important level acts as a strong barrier. A break of 1.2750 would deal a big blow to the downtrend and we might see an extended move north. If price will have trouble breaking the level, the next destination is 1.2660 and the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The G20 Meetings start today and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 3:00 pm GMT in Washington DC. The main subject of the speech will be the latest European developments and, as always, volatility is expected and caution recommended because the Euro can be strongly affected by Draghi’s attitude.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound couldn’t break resistance before the FOMC release but Dollar weakness allowed the pair to move swiftly up and to break resistance.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trying to move above 1.6160 after breaking 1.6060 in a decisive manner. The market perceived the Meeting Minutes as very bearish for the greenback so we might see more upwards movement today but overall we are still trading in a market with a strong Dollar. Bearish activity is not out of the question although the momentum is in favor of the bulls and we consider a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average a sign of underlying US Dollar strength which may lead to a touch of 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate decision. The current value is 0.50% and an increase would add massive strength to the Pound; however, such an increase would be a tremendous surprise considering the fact that Bank of England didn’t offer any hints so far about a rate hike.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CORRECTION OVER. DOWNTREND RESUMPTION AHEAD
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take price higher during the early stages of yesterday but the climb couldn’t be sustained and price returned below resistance. Mario Draghi’s dovish attitude and comments weakened the Euro further and added more fuel to the downside.

Technical Outlook

The move that started at 1.2500 is considered a bullish correction to the main downtrend and it looks like it may have ended. The Relative Strength Index reached overbought territory in a strong downtrend and bulls failed to keep price above 1.2750; these factors combined with the prevailing downtrend make us believe that today we will see a break of 1.2660 which is first potential support. If this occurs, the next level of interest is located at 1.2580.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:45 am GMT the French Industrial Production change is released and a drop from last month’s 0.2% to -0.2% is expected. The indicator usually has low or medium impact on the Euro but nonetheless, better numbers can strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

As forecast, the Bank of England didn’t change the Interest Rate and the event went almost unnoticed by market participants. The bears dragged the pair lower yesterday after the bulls failed to touch major resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price is very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if a clear break occurs the next target will become 1.6060 support. A new move above 1.6160 would suggest that bulls have enough strength to take price into the major level at 1.6250; however the Relative Strength Index was close to overbought before yesterday’s drop and this increases the chances of a bigger move to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is -9.6B. Since this indicator represents the difference between imports and exports, higher values are beneficial for the Pound.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US BANKS ARE CLOSED. IRREGULAR VOLATILITY EXPECTED
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: For almost the entire duration of Friday’s trading session the pair moved south, resuming the direction of the main trend. No major events took place and price direction was mainly influenced by technical factors.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below its 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the level at 1.2660, showing the underlying strength of the bears. We expect downside movement to continue today until 1.2580 is reached but price action might be slow due to the fact that US banks will be closed today. To the upside, 1.2660 will act as resistance if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States celebrate Columbus Day and US Banks will be closed as a result. This may lead lo low volume and potentially irregular volatility. Europe didn’t schedule any important releases and overall we anticipate a slow day.

GBP/USD

Although Friday the US Dollar took the pair below short term support, later in the day the Pound managed to erase some of the losses and the day finished above support.

Technical Outlook

Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the support at 1.6060 couldn’t be broken and we can even see a four-hour candle with a long lower wick, a fact which shows rejection and suggests that today price may move higher. If this occurs, the moving average will be the first target and also the first point where the bulls may encounter resistance. A clean break of 1.6060 would determine additional sellers to join in.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule notable economic releases for today and US Banks are closed so we might experience a day driven completely by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: Today’s headlines – German ZEW and United Kingdom’s inflation
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday Euro bulls managed to take price above first resistance although no major economic or financial indicators were released. The move was mainly technical and it’s not backed by strong fundamentals.

Technical Outlook

Price moved above 1.2660 resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we can notice the fact that momentum is starting to become neutral as the Moving average is almost flat on a four-hour chart. On an hourly chart we can see that yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at the psychological level of 1.2700 and this will be the first barrier in front of rising prices; a break would make 1.2750 the next target while a bounce lower would take us back into 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, with an expected value of 0.2, a major drop from last month’s 6.9. This survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. Under normal circumstances, a higher than expected number strengthens the Euro and takes the pair higher.

GBP/USD

The pair’s movement was rather mixed yesterday and we saw the bulls take price higher just to be reversed in the second part of the day. No major news came out and direction was influenced by technical factors.

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart it’s clearly visible how the pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now it’s struggling to break 1.6060 support. Although the bears still have a lot of steam left, the downtrend is definitely weaker than before so it’s not very clear if this level can be broken and the answer will probably be offered by the British inflation numbers released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 8:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and although the current value is not a reason for concern, if inflation will continue to drop, this will become a worrying issue. Today’s expected change is 1.4%, lower than last month’s 1.5%; if this forecast comes true we might see lower prices on the back of Pound weakness.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bears back in control. Mario Draghi’s comments can change the tide
Posted → Technical News

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s selloff was triggered by a surprisingly low value of the German ZEW survey which is a gauge of optimism among professional investors and analysts. The actual value was -3.6 while the forecast was 0.2 and the Euro weakened as a result.

Technical Outlook

Following a touch of 1.2750 resistance, price bounced lower and maintained that direction for the most part of yesterday’s trading session. Although the latest momentum belongs to the bears, the resistance at 1.2660 is not broken so we might see some sort of rejection here before price will break the mentioned level. Important events take place today and the pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by them.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak twice today: the first speech is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT at a Conference organized by the European Central Bank and the second speech takes place at 6:00 pm GMT at the opening of the European Cultural Days 2014, in Frankfurt. Both events can have a high impact on the Euro but it all depends on what Draghi will say and what his attitude will be.
The United States also scheduled an important event: the release of the Retail Sales. Economic activity is highly influenced by the retail sector and usually a higher than expected value for this indicator strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated change is -0.1%, a drop from last month’s 0.6%.

GBP/USD

The British CPI disappointed in a tremendous manner, posting a reading of 1.2% while last month’s value was 1.5% and a drop to just 1.4% was forecast. The Pound suffered from this drop and a huge selloff started.

Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.6060 support decisively, the pair tumbled directly to the next support at 1.5900. The Relative Strength Index reached its 30 level but it doesn’t show a severe oversold condition; however, some sort of pause is likely to be seen here, considering that price traveled too far, too fast. The fundamental scene is packed today so price action will be highly influenced by news releases.

Fundamental Outlook

British employment data is announced today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Claimant Count Change. The indicator shows the monthly change in the number of unemployed people and higher numbers suggest economic contraction, weakening the Pound. Today’s forecast is -34.2K while last month’s number was -37.2K. Keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

Forex News : Mixed movement ahead of Yellen’s speech and Consumer Confidence survey

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair still had a lot of volatility but not as high as the day before and we saw price fall below main support just to return above it soon after. US economic data came out slightly better than anticipated but we couldn’t see major impact at the time.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2750 was pierced but price soon returned above it and this makes the high at 1.2886 the next target for the pair. To the downside, the zone around 1.2750 will still offer some support but a clear close of a four hour candle below it will make 1.2660 the immediate target. We have two important US events today and these will probably determine the day’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today at 12:30 pm GMT at a Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. As always, her speeches can be a reason for sharp moves and caution is recommended. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually a person confident in the economic situation of the country will spend more. Today’s expected number is 84.3, a small decrease from last month’s 84.6 and lower numbers will have a negative impact on the greenback.

GBP/USD

The Pound tried one more time to break support but the bulls took control yesterday and the pair reached resistance once again, so it looks like the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales continues to have a bad influence on the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

If the level at 1.6060 can be broken decisively today, we are likely to see a climb close to 1.6160 and the downtrend will be severely weakened. A break of 1.6060 would also mean that price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which will then offer dynamic support and this would shift the balance on favor of the bulls. Throughout the day, keep an eye for any possible overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index because this would increase the chances of bearish price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major news releases today so price direction will be influenced by technical factors and the US events.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

2014.10.21 : Forex News: Bounce-or-break scenarios in play

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a slow start of the week and price remained above support but movement was mostly ranging and a lot of indecision was present.

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we have a few candles with long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, a thing which suggests indecision regarding the next direction. The support at 1.2750 is holding for the moment and price bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which indicate a potential climb into 1.2835 resistance. On the other hand, a break of 1.2750 would open the door for a move towards 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released, with an anticipated change from the previous 5.05M to 5.11M. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the last month and an increase usually suggests economic expansion, hence a potentially stronger US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair also had a slow day yesterday, but movement was mostly bullish and price moved north, in close vicinity of resistance. No major news came out and the technical aspect held center stage.

Technical Outlook

As the pair is approaching 1.6160 resistance, a “bounce or break” scenario begins to develop: a bullish break would probably take the pair into 1.6250 resistance while a bounce lower would make 1.6060 the next target. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition but it is moving close to the 70 level and this could make further bullish advances more difficult.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Office for National Statistics will announce at 8:30 am GMT the Public Sector Net Borrowing. A negative number indicates a surplus while a positive figure shows deficit so the Pound would strengthen if a lower number will be posted today. The forecast is 9.3B while last month’s value was 10.9B.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

2014.10.22 : Forex News: American inflation holds center stage

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair made a sharp reversal after an almost perfect bounce off of resistance and the rest of the day was controlled by the bears. Euro weakness was generated by speculation that the ECB may increase stimulus in order to boost the economy.

Technical Outlook

The Euro received another blow yesterday and dropped immediately after touching 1.2835 resistance; the support at 1.2750 was broken and price continued through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. These facts combined with the strength and speed of yesterday’s move makes us believe that today the pair will travel close to the support located at 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

American inflation will hold center stage today as the CORE version of the Consumer Price Index is released. This is an important gauge of overall inflation and the Core version excludes automobiles from calculation as they sometimes distort the data because of big fluctuations in automobile sales. The expected change is 0.2% while last month the value was 0.0% and usually a higher than expected number strengthens the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound moved a lot slower than the Euro yesterday and a lackluster fundamental scene was probably the reason for the low volatility. Resistance couldn’t be broken and price traveled slowly to the downside.

Technical Outlook

We consider the inability of the bulls to break the resistance at 1.6160 a sign of weakness and a hint that bears will step in to take control of the pair. The Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level (which indicates overbought) and is now curving downwards, increasing the chances of a move into 1.6060 support. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will provide the first form of support if price will indeed start to move south.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the Official Rate Votes today at 8:30 am GMT. Last month, 2 of the 9 members voted to increase the interest rate and if this structure will remain unchanged we probably won’t see a lot of volatility. However, if more members voted for a rate increase, the Pound will most likely strengthen and the opposite is valid if fewer members voted for a rate hike. Inflation in the US will also affect the pair’s movement directly.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.10.23: Forex News: US Dollar strength puts the bears back in control. Retracements expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar gained against the Euro and most of its other counterparts as inflation in the United States increased unexpectedly. The pair had a bearish day yesterday and support was touched.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 was touched yesterday and price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, things which show that we are trading in a bearish market. A break of the current support zone would make 1.2500 the next target but before that can happen, price will most likely stall around 1.2660. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and this increases the chances of bullish moves.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT France will release the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey which shows the level of optimism among purchasing managers regarding the current and future economic conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected number is 48.6 and higher values will most likely strengthen the Euro. Half an hour later, at 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release the indicator with the same name; the forecast is 49.6 and the Euro will be positively affected by a higher number.

GBP/USD

The pair traveled south yesterday as the votes on the latest interest rate decision showed that Bank of England officials see risk for the growth of the UK economy. This dampened the appeal of the Pound and triggered and extended bearish move.

Technical Outlook

Although the support level at 1.6060 was pierced, we didn’t see a clear break. Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this will be the first form of resistance if the pair will bounce higher. Today’s direction will be heavily influenced by the fundamental aspect, making the technical part somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month’s 0.4% to -0.1%. Since the retail sector is of crucial importance for overall economic activity, a decrease would negatively affect the Pound and would take the pair lower. Usually the Retail Sales release creates strong moves so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.10.24 : Forex News: United Kingdom’s GDP and American housing data, the final headlines of the week

EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro strength was seen yesterday once a German Manufacturing survey posted better than expected numbers. However, the pair failed to break resistance and price returned lower later in the day.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s trading session was not characterized by one sided price action and the pair reversed soon after crossing 1.2660 to the upside. There is still a lot of bearish pressure as shown by yesterday’s failed attempt to break 1.2660 resistance but we expect mostly ranging movement today. The first lower level of importance is located at 1.2610, while a move above 1.2660 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would put the bulls in control.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be affected today by the New Home Sales release scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. Usually people buy a new house in times of economic expansion and this triggers additional expenses (furniture, electronic appliances, etc.), thus higher numbers for today’s release will have a positive impact on the greenback. The forecast is 473K while last month’s number was 504K.

GBP/USD

British Retail Sales disappointed yesterday, triggering a bearish move below support. However, the sellers couldn’t maintain their control over the pair and price moved north later in the day.

Technical Outlook

The choppy price action seen yesterday paints an unclear picture with long wicked candles which suggest indecision. Resistance sits at 1.6060 while first major support is located at 1.5900 and the day’s direction will be dictated by the value of the British Gross Domestic Product which is the main gauge of an economy’s overall performance.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of United Kingdom’s GDP is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 0.7%, a decrease from the previous 0.9%. This would be another blow to British economic recovery and would weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan