Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THE DOWNTREND WAVERS. RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD
Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product posted a better than expected reading but the pair failed to break 1.2400 and rebounded higher after a brief moment of bearishness.

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s rise took price in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart but resistance has not been broken so the picture is not strongly bullish for the moment. On the other hand, support pushed price higher and this makes 1.2500 the first target. However, if 1.2500 is touched and the Relative Strength Index is overbought at the time, we anticipate a bounce lower.
Fundamental Outlook

The US Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.4% while last month’s value was -1.1%. The indicator tracks changes in the value of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.
The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 3:00 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 471K, slightly better than last month’s 467K. Same as for the other indicator, a higher value suggests economic expansion and usually strengthens the US Dollar.

GBP/USD
The Pound had a good day against the US Dollar despite the value of the American GDP which was better than anticipated. The Inflation Report hearings created mixed market reaction which did not result in strong movement.

Technical Outlook
The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was clearly broken yesterday and now will probably act as support. The immediate target is located at 1.5750 but the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory and we expect a bounce lower if the level mentioned will be touched. If 1.5750 will be broken we expect further upside movement after a test from above.

Fundamental Outlook
Great Britain’s Second Estimate GDP is released at 9:30 GMT and being the main gauge of economic performance, better values than the expected 0.7% will most likely generate Pound strength. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: THANKSGIVING DAY GENERATES IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION​

EUR/USD
Forex News: The data released yesterday by the United States was disappointing and generated US Dollar weakness, thus the pair had a bullish day and price broke through short term resistance.

Technical Outlook
Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will most likely trigger irregular movement and periods of alternating volume, especially during the American session. From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a re-test from above of the recently broken level at 1.2500; adding to this is the position of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart, but if the bulls can maintain price above the mentioned level, we expect further upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook
Since today is Thanksgiving Day, The United States will not release any economic data. However, an important indicator will affect price action: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation for the German economy. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and the CPI is expected to increase to 0.0% from the previous -0.3%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro.

GBP/USD
The British Gross Domestic Product met analysts forecast but worse than expected US economic data generated greenback weakness and allowed the pair to climb above resistance.

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading above 1.5750 which was previously resistance but the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart is showing clear overbought signs. This makes us believe that price will have another encounter with 1.5750; a bounce higher would suggest that 1.5750 is now support and that we will see further bullish price action.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic indicators for today thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect but keep in mind that irregular movement can occur due to Thanksgiving Day.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION IN THE FOCUS. US DOLLAR STILL AFFECTED BY HOLIDAYS
​

EUR/USD
Forex News: Although the German CPI met analysts’ expectations and came out better than last month, the pair dropped yesterday below short term support; however the bears couldn’t continue the initial impulse and volatility toned down.

Technical Outlook
The pair is trading below 1.2500 but the picture is mixed and we don’t expect a lot of action today considering that Thanksgiving will still affect the US Dollar. The bullish trend line seen on the chart above will be the first barrier in front of falling prices and the level at 1.2500 can hinder further bullish movement. A break of either one could trigger an extended move but low volume will be present probably and this can generate sharp turns.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day is the release of the European Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to decrease 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Lately inflation has been a major concern for the ECB and lower values than anticipated can have a negative impact on the Euro.

GBP/USD
Yesterday the pair returned to test the recently broken level at 1.5750 but resistance didn’t turn into support and the bears managed to take price lower. Overall we had a day controlled almost entirely by the sellers.

Technical Outlook
Before the drop below 1.5750 the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition which had an important role in yesterday’s drop, especially because neither the Pound nor the US Dollar was affected by economic news. Now price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5750 so the picture is bearish but keep in mind that price is approaching oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound won’t be affected by any major economic news releases and the same is true for the US Dollar. We expect a day with irregular movement and volatility due to American holidays.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvez

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bears take back control – support threatened

EUR/USD

Forex News: Although Spain showed yesterday that unemployment levels are starting to drop and the economy is picking up, the pair moved lower for almost the entire day as a positive sentiment surrounded the US economy and the greenback.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower, until 1.2400 support was touched. The hourly Relative Strength Index traveled below 30, indicating an oversold condition and this makes us believe that a retracement higher will occur before 1.2400 can be clearly broken. This potential retracement can find resistance at the Moving Average and we expect the bearish movement to resume there, making another attempt to break 1.2400 and opening the door for the next support, located at 1.2360.

Fundamental Outlook
European Retail Sales numbers are released 10:00 am GMT and expected to change 0.6% from the previous -1.3%. Better values than forecast are beneficial for the Euro but the indicator tends to have a mild impact because the most important European countries usually release their retail sales numbers earlier.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a privately owned company will release today a version of the Non Farm Employment Report which is not as important as the Government data released Friday but it can still create a lot of volatility. The scheduled time is 1:15 pm GMT, the anticipated number is 223K while the previous was 230K and a higher number is usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a disappointing reading yesterday and this allowed the pair to drop for the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5750 remains an important level for short term price action and has enough strength to reject strong bullish impulses, as seen from yesterday’s movement. We expect the current move to extend into the support located at 1.5590 but we don’t exclude the possibility of bullish retracements considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is approaching oversold.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is the last one in this week’s series of surveys focused on optimism regarding economic and business conditions; it will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, with an expected figure of 56.6, slightly better than last month’s 56.2. As always, keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

Desember 2014 :Mixed price action ahead of Interest Rate decisions

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken yesterday on speculation that Europe’s economy will need further stimulus from the ECB. Support was broken and the bears maintained control for the entire day.

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is showing an extreme condition, traveling well below the 30 level and it has even become oversold on a four hour chart. The support at 1.2360 was clearly broken and the pair is headed towards 1.2280, but before that level can be reached, we expect some sort of bullish retracement which will clear the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index.

Fundamental Outlook
Today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the ECB Interest Rate decision, scheduled at 12:45 pm GMT and by the Press Conference that follows 45 minutes later. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.05% and usually if there’s no rate change, the Press Conference is the day’s main market mover. Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions will most likely generate a lot of volatility and if he talks about increasing stimulus, we expect very strong movement.

GBP/USD

British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a reading which surpassed analysts’ expectations and this allowed the Pound to strengthen against the US Dollar. A worse than expected number for the ADP Non Farm Employment Change also added to the climb.

Technical Outlook
The pair is having trouble choosing a clear direction as all moves are quickly reversed. Now price is sitting once again above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the latest impulse is bullish, a fact that makes us believe that 1.5750 resistance will be touched once again. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index which is approaching overbought territory so a reversal is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest rate but no change is expected from the current 0.50%. If this forecast comes true, the Pound will probably show limited volatility but caution is recommended nonetheless.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

Desember 2014:Forex News: US employment data – a catalyst for volatility

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Central Bank decided to maintain rates at the current level and refrained from adding more stimulus; as a result the euro rose from a two year low after an almost perfect bounce off of support.

Technical Outlook
The support at 1.2280 was touched while the Relative Strength Index was below the 30 level (oversold) and these facts, combined with the volatility created by the ECB Press Conference, pushed price significantly higher. This bullish impulse is likely to generate further bullish price action, especially if the resistance at 1.2400 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be broken. Considering the importance of the US employment report released today, the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
Today’s main event is represented by the release of the US Non Farm Payrolls, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. This is the most important jobs related data for the United States and has the potential to be a huge market mover because employment is closely related to consumer spending which represents a major part of the entire economic activity. The expected change is 231K while the previous was 214K and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s interest rate remained unchanged, as anticipated and the pair had choppy movement all day, without any clear directional advances.

Technical Outlook
The Non Farm Payrolls scheduled for release today are likely to get the pair out of this ranging state, but for the time being our bias is neutral for this pair. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, with price moving close to it and the Relative Strength Index lacks direction, without showing an extreme reading. Support is located at 1.5590 and resistance at 1.5750 and until either one is broken, the pair is still ranging.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day but as mentioned before, the American NFP release will most likely have a strong impact on the US Dollar and hence on our pair.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.08 :Forex News: Bearish advancements confirmed by a break of support

EUR/USD

Friday the US Dollar strengthened as a result of a much better than anticipated value of the Non Farm Employment Change. Analysts’ forecast was 231K new jobs but the actual number was 321K and this took the pair back into support.

Technical Outlook
The bearish momentum generated by the Non Farm Payrolls is likely to continue today and we expect a move below 1.2280. However, last week price bounced strongly once the current level was touched, so we might see several attempts until the level is clearly broken. Even if the break occurs, we expect price to return to the level of a retest, especially if the Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition during the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by important figures from the European financial and political scene. The meetings are closed to the press but sometimes officials talk to journalists during the day and a statement is released once the meetings conclude. Volatility may be present throughout the day but unless surprise developments take place, we don’t expect strong moves.

GBP/USD

American employment affected the pair strongly and took price almost 130 pips lower on the back of greenback strength. This may mark the end of the ranging price action seen during the last period.

Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was broken Friday but considering the importance of this level for short term price action, we expect a retest from below which will show if the bears can take the pair lower and if the break was a real one. The Relative Strength Index is bouncing close to the oversold level and this may generate some bullish movement and probably the retest mentioned before.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any financial indicator releases for today, so we expect a slow day, with price action driven by the technical aspect.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.09 :Forex News: Price above support – Retracement or reversal?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen against the single currency yesterday, probably an effect of the surprisingly better than anticipated US employment data. Later in the day the bulls managed to retrace the pair higher for a test of the recently broken level.

Technical Outlook
The pair is currently re-testing the broken support at 1.2280 but the US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment and we expect further downside movement. Yesterday’s low at 1.2247 will be the first barrier in front of the bears but before that level can be taken out, we might see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index touched the oversold level and bounced higher immediately.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic releases but the ECOFIN meetings take place today and volatility might be generated. The meetings are attended by finance ministers from the EU member states, discussing a range of financial matters.

GBP/USD

The Pound erased some of the losses incurred last week and the pair moved above the recently broken level at 1.5590 after a small dip which occurred early during the day.

Technical Outlook
Price is approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart and its behavior in immediate vicinity of this dynamic resistance line will determine the next destination. A break of the EMA would probably add more bull strength, triggering a move closer to 1.5750, while a bounce would send the pair back into 1.5590 support.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total output produced by manufacturers and higher values are considered beneficial for the Pound as they show an increased economic activity. The previous change was 0.4% and today’s forecast is 0.2%. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR); although this is just an estimate, higher values than the previous 0.7% can strengthen the Pound.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.10 :Forex News: Short term price action favors the bulls. Main trend still down

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro had a very good day against the US Dollar, strengthening for more than 150 pips and breaking several resistance levels. For the most part of yesterday’s trading session the pair moved straight north and the bulls were in complete control.

Technical Outlook
Two levels of interest were broken during yesterday’s rally: 1.2360 and 1.2400. Now price is sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the momentum clearly belongs to the bulls. This makes us believe that the current impulse will extend towards 1.2500 but the Relative Strength Index is showing an overbought condition and the short term resistance at 1.2455 sits in front of rising prices. We expect some moves lower which will clear the overbought condition, followed by another climb but keep in mind that the main trend is bearish, thus stronger moves south are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic and financial news releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar, making the technical aspect the more important one.

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was choppy and a clear direction wasn’t established until later in the day when the bulls managed to take price higher, above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook
Although early in the week the pair moved below the support at 1.5590, the bears couldn’t maintain price below it and the break soon proved to be fake. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken to the upside and this will most likely take the pair into the resistance at 1.5750. Even if this level will be broken to the upside, we don’t expect it to happen in the first attempt, considering that the Relative Strength Index might become overbought when price touches resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors.



Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.11 :Forex News: ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Option, a major market mover

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair moved above 1.2400 resistance, reversing a previous retracement below this level. The day belonged to the bulls but the action was rather slow, compared with the previous move, probably because economic releases were scarce.

Technical Outlook
Price found support in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and of 1.2360 support but 1.2455 short term resistance wasn’t touched although the bulls controlled the day’s price action. We expect a move above 1.2455 resistance but if this doesn’t happen today, we are likely to see a return below 1.2360 support. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index which is approaching overbought and could trigger reversals.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:15 am GMT the ECB will announce the value of their Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option). This is the total amount of money the ECB will create and loan to European commercial banks in order to boost liquidity. The current value is 82.6B and the forecast is 148.2B but the impact might be difficult to anticipate as market participants can interpret differently the actual value.

The US Retail Sales are announced at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change 0.4% while last month’s change was 0.3%. Higher values will most likely benefit the greenback because sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the entire economic activity.

GBP/USD

The pair showed choppy price action for the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and remained in a tight range. Neither bulls nor bears were in clear control but minor advances north were made.

Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but important resistance sits in front of rising prices: 1.5750. If this level cannot be breached today, we expect price to start moving towards the support at 1.5590. If this is the case, the Moving Average will be the first area of dynamic support.

Fundamental Outlook
The pair’s direction will be influenced today by the US Retail Sales as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases. Keep an eye on the CORE version of this indicator, which excludes automobiles from calculation.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.12 :Forex News: United States economic indicators – the deciding factor for Friday’s price action

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as the American Retail Sales came out with a better than expected value, showing that economic activity in this sector is picking up. ECB’s Targeted LTRO came out with the value of 129.8B, less than the expected 148.2 but the event didn’t create strong moves.

Technical Outlook
After breaking 1.2455 to the upside, the pair became overbought as shown by the Relative Strength Index and this, coupled with the dollar strength generated by the US Retail Sales release, pushed the pair below 1.2400. Currently the pair is retesting the recently broken level from below and we believe this retest will result in another push lower. The first target is the support at 1.2360, followed by 1.2280.

Fundamental Outlook
All major indicators of the day come from the US with the first release being scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the Producer Price Index. The indicator tracks changes in prices charged by producers and has inflationary implications because a higher price will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The forecast is -0.1% while the previous was 0.2% and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.

The University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey at 2:55 pm GMT. Increased confidence among consumer is usually a leading signal of increased consumer spending and that’s the reason why a higher value than the expected 89.6 is perceived as beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair touched 1.5750 resistance yesterday but the bulls failed to take price above and this resulted in an almost picture-perfect bounce lower. The fact that US Retail Sales exceeded analysts’ expectations also played a big role in yesterday’s price action.

Technical Outlook
Although price bounced lower once 1.5750 resistance was touched, the pair couldn’t move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and instead it showed rejection once the line was tested. For the time being, the pair’s direction is still not decided and our bias is neutral until either 1.5750 resistance or the 50 period EMA is broken. Next resistance is located at 1.5825 while next support sits at 1.5590.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound had a slow week in terms of economic releases and today is no exception, so the pair’s direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US releases.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.15 :Forex News: Slow Monday ahead, with US Dollar under pressure

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the Euro gained against the US Dollar as the US Producer Price Index disappointed analysts’ expectations, weakening the greenback. Later in the day, a better than expected value of a Consumer Confidence survey brought the pair slightly lower and triggered mild US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook
The pair is likely to continue on its current course until 1.2500 resistance is touched but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought and this might trigger bearish movement. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer support if touched but we don’t expect strong moves today as the economic scene lacks major releases and Mondays are usually slow days.

Fundamental Outlook
At 2:15 pm GMT the US Industrial Production is released but this is considered an event with medium impact on the US Dollar unless surprising numbers are posted. The forecast is 0.8% while the previous was -0.1% and higher than expected values are usually beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly sideways for the entire Friday trading session, no substantial advances were made by either bulls or bears and price remained confined between support and resistance.

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5750 was barely touched Friday but the lack of strong momentum brought price back down, without volatility. We expect this slow, ranging movement to continue today and price to remain between 1.5750 and the four hour 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of either one would open the door for a move towards 1.5825 resistance or 1.5590 support but we don’t expect these levels to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks important releases for the Pound and the US event mentioned earlier is the only economic indicator that could generate strong movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.16.12 : The Forex Market: Heads-up for the BOE Bank Stress Tests results and European PMIs

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day yesterday, with the US Dollar gaining against the Euro; however the move wasn’t substantial and support was not threatened.

Technical Outlook


Price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bears weren’t able to continue the move and no significant advances were made. This type of movement is likely to continue today unless surprising numbers are showed by the European economic indicators. Resistance still sits at 1.2500 and support at 1.2360 and we believe resistance might be touched before the bears will make a run for support.


Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released at 8:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 48.7. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the manufacturing sector, higher numbers will have a positive impact on the Euro. Half an hour later, at 8:30 am GMT the German indicator with the same name will be released. The forecast is 50.4 and the release usually has a higher impact than the French Manufacturing PMI.

At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out with an anticipated increase to 19.8 from the previous 11.5. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts and tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic outlook, thus better numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened severely versus the US Dollar yesterday and the pair dropped after another close encounter with 1.5750 resistance.

Technical Outlook

The momentum clearly belongs to the bears as shown by yesterday’s price action and strictly from a technical point of view, we expect the downside to prevail today. First support is located at 1.5590, a level which proved very strong in the past and might reject price higher again if it will be touched, but a break will most likely draw in more sellers; however, the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamental today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will make public at 7:00 am GMT the Bank Stress Test results; major UK banks are tested through simulated market conditions to see how they would hold up during a crisis. The market might have a mixed reaction to this stress test so we recommend caution. The Financial Stability Report will be released by the BoE at the same time (7:00 am GMT) and Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference about the report at 9:00 am GMT. At 9:30 the British Consumer Price Index is released and expected to change 1.2% compared with the previous 1.3%, a thing which would further weaken the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.17.12 : Forex News: Huge day for the US Dollar with the Fed meetings in the spotlight

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday both the German Manufacturing PMI and German ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys showed values which exceeded analysts’ expectations and the single currency strengthened as a result, breaking resistance.

Technical Outlook


On an hourly chart the pair has become overbought as signaled by the Relative Strength Index and this suggests that price might move below the level of 1.2500, for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current test of recently broken resistance turns into a bounce higher, the first target is located at 1.2575.


Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day for the greenback: the first event is the release of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1% while last month we saw a change of 0.0%. Usually an increase in inflation is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar and could take the pair lower.

In the evening we have a cluster of events which will most likely have a tremendous impact on the greenback: at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Economic Projections for the next 2 years and a Rate Statement which will contain insights into the reasons which determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which might be the biggest market mover of the day so extra caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British CPI dropped to 1.0%, a fact which only weakened the Pound briefly before the bulls took over, taking the pair above resistance.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.5750 couldn’t be sustained and price soon moved below the level, showing rejection on a four hour chart. The pin bar created right on resistance suggests that price encountered a strong level which cannot be broken decisively at least for the moment, but we have a day filled with important news releases and we are likely to see strong moves which will decide the next medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Claimant Count is released at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of -19.8K while last month’s number was -20.4K. The indicator shows the change in the number of people who applied for unemployment related social help and a higher number suggests that the jobs market is contracting so the Pound will be negatively affected by a rise in jobless claims. At the same time, a breakdown of the MPC votes on the latest interest rate is released and this is a good opportunity for traders to see if the BOE is changing its stance on the interest rate. The US events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.18.12 : Forex News: Dollar strengthens although Fed mentions patience about raising rates

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the Fed meetings the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but “patience” about raising rates was mentioned and the greenback weakened briefly before taking back control and breaking support.

Technical Outlook

Although Fed’s stance wasn’t very hawkish, we consider the US Dollar is likely to continue to strengthen and to take the pair towards 1.2280. For that to happen we need to see 1.2360 support clearly broken and re-tested from below but keep in mind that on an hourly chart the Relative Strength Index is oversold and this may trigger bullish retracements.


Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey comes out at 9:00 am GMT with an anticipated change to 105.6 from last month’s 104.7. The survey uses a sample of 7,000 businesses in an attempt to gauge optimism and this large sample is the reason why it’s so respected and why it usually has a strong impact on the Euro; if the analysts’ expectations will be surpassed we might see Euro strength.

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district about general business conditions. The expected number is 26.3 and values above forecast usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound also had a bad day against the US Dollar but once the Fed events took place, the pair started to move in a hard to trade manner, with lots of whipsaws before finally deciding to move south.

Technical Outlook

The latest momentum belongs to the bears but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. This level proved very strong in the past so we might see bullish moves in its close vicinity, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index which is approaching an oversold condition by moving below the 30 level. If 1.5590 is broken to the downside, the next support sits at 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom Retail Sales are released at 9.30 am GMT and a hefty drop is expected: 0.3% from the previous 0.8%. Such a drop would signify a contracting economy and possibly a weaker Pound. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.19.12 : Forex News: Finishing the week on a bearish note

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken against the US Dollar during yesterday’s trading session and the pair touched 1.2280 support. Both the German and American economic indicators posted readings close to analysts’ expectations and this dampened their impact.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved easily below 1.2360 and continued south to touch 1.2280 although the Relative Strength Index was trading close to oversold territory for the most part of the day. At the moment price is showing rejection off of 1.2280 support and the Relative Strength Index is starting to move upwards so we anticipate a day with bullish movement which may find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A clear break of support may bring in additional sellers.


Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major news events for the Euro and the US Dollar, so price direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales posted a surprising 1.6% increase while analysts’ expectations were just 0.3%. This created Pound strength and a bullish day.

Technical Outlook

After moving below the support at 1.5590 and coming very close to 1.5540 support, the pair started to move north, back above 1.5590. The Relative Strength Index touched the 30 level, becoming oversold and this played a major role from a technical point of view. Today we expect mixed price action, without significant advances; if the Relative Strength Index will become overbought during the day, the sellers might take the pair lower, with 1.5590 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 9:30 am GMT, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced. This is the amount of new debt held by the central and local governments and a higher number is viewed as detrimental for the Pound; the expected value is 14.8B while last month the debt was at 7.1B.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.22.12 :
Forex News: A lackluster fundamental scene brings choppy price action

EUR/USD

Friday the bears continued to take price lower, breaking 1.2280 support on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall we saw unidirectional price action, without whipsaws or sudden reversals.

Technical Outlook

We are entering Christmas Week and Mondays are known to be slow days, especially if no major news is released. The Relative Strength Index has been moving for an extended period close to the 30 level which suggests oversold and the current bear run seems a bit overextended so we expect bullish retracements. However, keep in mind the pair is in a clear downtrend from a short and long term perspective so further downside action is not out of the question.


Fundamental Outlook

The US Existing Home Sales are announced at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the day’s only notable release. An increase in home sales suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the greenback but the indicator has a medium impact on price action. Today’s forecast is 5.21M and higher values will probably trigger limited dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar gained against the Pound as well but the pair’s descent wasn’t as substantial as seen in the EUR/USD pair and support was not broken.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. Today we anticipate another encounter with the mentioned level but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index might move below the 30 level, suggesting an oversold condition. Considering the pair is not in a strong trend from a short term perspective, we anticipate a bounce higher towards the 50 period EMA if 1.5590 is not clearly broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so price action will be driven by technical factors and by the US house market data.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.12.23 :Forex News: Irregular price action with both pairs under pressure

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved north yesterday on the back of a disappointing value of the US Existing Home Sales but also because the short term downtrend was overextended and in need of a retracement.

Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on a bullish path until 1.2280 is touched but we don’t believe this resistance will be broken today and instead we expect a bounce lower. If the bounce occurs, the first support is represented by the level of 1.2220. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will also provide dynamic resistance but keep in mind that winter holidays usually generate irregular movement and technical analysis is not reliable.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Durable Goods Orders are released today at 1:30 pm GMT with an expected change to 3.0% from last month’s 0.3%. Such an increase would suggest an expanding economy and would strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Price reversed yesterday after an initial climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we saw choppy price after for the rest of the day but immediate support was not breached.

Technical Outlook
The pair is under pressure and there’s a distinct possibility of a drop below 1.5590 support but we don’t expect price to travel for an extended distance in one direction. Volatility will probably alternate during the day and we expect price action to be choppy and irregular but a clear break of 1.5590 could take price in close vicinity of 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Current Account is announced today at 9:30 am GMT; this indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a higher value than the expected -21.1B is considered beneficial for the Pound. At the same time the British Bankers’ Association announces the Mortgage Approvals; the indicator offers insights into the housing market and a higher number than the forecast 37.3K suggests that more houses will be bought in the near future with the help of a mortgage, a fact which normally strengthens the Pound.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

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[pasfx]

2014.24.12 : Forex News: Price action slows down for Christmas Eve

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair dropped substantially yesterday as the US Dollar continued to strengthen and the Euro weakened on the back of speculation that Greece may be headed towards early elections.

Technical Outlook

Short term support at 1.2220 was broken after two small bounces and once this happened, more sellers joined the renewed downtrend. The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the pair is trading well below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition and this makes us believe that price will retrace higher. Keep in mind that today is Christmas Eve and the market will tend to present irregular behavior.


Fundamental Outlook

The US Unemployment Claims are the single notable release of the day, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected number is 291K and an increase in unemployment would suggest that the economy is slowing down and this usually weakens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Current Account disappointed yesterday, showing that the deficit increased and the Pound responded quickly by weakening against the greenback.

Technical Outlook

The pair remained under the level at 1.5590 which turned into resistance as showed by the touch from below which resulted in a bounce lower. The important support at 1.5540 was also broken and this might suggest the end of the ranging period, but the approaching of Christmas might nullify the effect of this break and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see a return back above 1.5540. The Relative Strength Index is also oversold and this may add to the probability of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day and we expect irregular price action, with alternating volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

 

[pasfx]

2014.25.12 : Forex News: Christmas brings price action to a halt

EUR/USD

Forex News: Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and the economic releases didn’t have a lot of impact. The pair retraced higher and touched short term resistance but a break didn’t occur and instead price bounced lower.

Technical Outlook

Today price action will come to a stop due to the fact that a large part of the world is celebrating Christmas. When the market will open, the pair may present gaps and probably irregular volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Many important banks around the world (including American and European banks) will be closed today, celebrating Christmas Day and no economic indicators will be released for either the Euro or the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Similar to our other pair, the GBP/USD retraced higher, following an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index. For the most part of the day price traded above and below 1.5540, without significant advances.

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, the market is taking a breather today and trading will be suspended. Depending on the world’s time zones, price movement will resume sooner or later and once it does, we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Banks are closed due to the Christmas Holiday and no economic releases are scheduled.

We wish a Mary Christmas to those of you who celebrate this Holiday!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.