Materi Dasar Trading Forex

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Fibonacci Ratio

Fibonacci Ratio adalah pengembangan dari teori 123 dan Elliot Wave dikombinasikan dengan perhitungan Fibonacci Ratio yang berfungsi untuk menentukan level Support & Resistance.

Prinsip dasarnya sama dengan teori 123 yaitu dimana gelombang panjang (1-2) disebut swing akan diikuti dengan gelombang pendek (2-3) disebut retracement. Dengan perhitungan Fibonacci kita dapat mengetahui level support dan resistance dari pergerakan retracement.

Untuk menenentukan Fibonacci harus diidentifikasikan dulu Swing High dan Swing Low pada chart.

 

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1. Fibonacci Retracement Level
Biasanya pergerakan retracemnt akan mencapai level 23,6%; 38,2%; 50%; 61,8%, kemudian kembali lagi ke level 0% hingga berlanjut ke extension level. Jika harga tidak sanggup menembus level 0% maka harga akan bergerak ke level 100%. Begitu pula sebaliknya.

 

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2. Fibonacci Extension Level
Yaitu level support & resistance yang diharapkan akan dicapai setelah pergerakan harga berhasil melewati level 0%.

 

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Berikut ini gambar contoh penerapan Teori 123, Elliot Wave & Fibonacci dalam chart.
* 1,2,3 menggambarkan Teori 123
* A,B,C,D,E & a,b,c menggambark

 

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Berikut ini gambar contoh penerapan Teori 123, Elliot Wave & Fibonacci dalam chart.
* 1,2,3 menggambarkan Teori 123
* A,B,C,D,E & a,b,c menggambarkan Teori Elliot Wave
* Garis kuning adalah level Fibonacci & garis biru adalah level expantion Fibonacci

 

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PENERAPAN TEORI 123, ELLIOT WAVE & FIBONACCI
Ketiga teori di atas dapat diterapkan secara bersamaan dalam Time Frame berapa saja. Prinsip dasar sebenarnya yaitu prinsip breakout strategi juga dimana secara psikologis harga akan bergerak berkelanjutan jika berhasil menembus level high atau low sebelumnya.

Strategi 1 :
1. Tentukan dahulu swing harga yang sudah terjadi dengan sempurna (level High & Low) dan pastikan harga sekarang ada di antara level High & Low.
2. Pasang order stop BUY pada level High + 2xspread, dan pasang order stop SELL pada level Low – 2xspread.
3. Pasang Stop Loss untuk kedua order tersebut di level 50% Fibonacci atau pada posisi high/low.
4. Jika anda ingin menggunakan Target Poin gunakan level Fibonacci Expantion sebagai target poin. (Jika Anda tidak ingin menggunakan Target Poin bisa lanjutkan ke Strategi 2).
5. Pindahkan Entry Anda yang belum tersentuh ke level swing baru yang sudah terbentuk sempurna. Hal ini berguna apabila Trend berubah dan harga berbalik arah sebelum mencapai target poin.

 

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Strategi 2 : Trailing Stop
Jika harga sudah menembus Entry poin dan berhasil mencapai target yang diharapkan gunakan Trailing Stop untuk meminimalkan resiko dan mengamankan profit yang sudah Anda dapatkan.

Gunakanlah selalu Stop Loss (SL). Dan pindahkan SL jika target sudah tercapai.
Contoh :
C = harga
B = entry order Buy
A = entry order Sell
D = Prediksi Target P

Saat swing C-D terbentuk pindahkan SL ke B
Sehingga posisi Anda aman, resiko = 0
Saat swing E-F terbentuk pindahkan SL
Diposisi ini profit Anda aman.
Saat swing G-H terbentuk pinda
Begitu seterusnya

 

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Strategi 3 : Compounding Profit

Tambahkan entry point saat harga sudah mencapai target.
Contoh :
C = harga saat ini
B = entry order Buy
A = entry order Sell
D = Prediksi Target Poin

Saat swing C-D terbentuk pindahkan SL ke B
Sehingga posisi Anda aman, resiko = 0
Saat swing E-F terbentuk pindahkan SL ke E
Diposisi ini profit Anda aman.
Saat harga di G stop order Buy di F dengan SL di G
Saat swing G-H terbentuk pindahkan SL1 ke G
Begitu seterusnya tambahkan order Buy setiap posisi Anda aman maka profit Anda akan berlipat-lipat.

 

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Internet dan Forex Trading via FXOptimax

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5. Menyediakan support international live chatting antara lain dalam BAHASA INDONESIA. Oleh karena itu bagi para trader dari Indonesia yang mungkin kesulitan dalam berkonsultasi dalam hal trading forex via FXOptimax dapat menyampaikan permasalahannya dalam bahasa Indonesia secara langsung kepada INDONESIAN LIVE SUPPORT kami. Dan selanjutnya silahkan berkonsultasi secara live dengan INDONESIA LIVE SUPPORT.

Demikianlah beberapa informasi, semoga bermanfaat bagi para pembaca.
[URL="http://www.fxoptimax.com"]http://www.fxoptimax.com
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First Floor-Commercial Area 53rd Street, Marbella
Panama City, Republic of Panama

 

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1. Average True Range – ATR

A measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder in his book: "New Concepts in
Technical Trading Systems."

The True Range indicator is the greatest of the following:

- Current high less the current low.
- The absolute value of the current high less the previous close.
- The absolute value of the current low less the previous close.

The Average True Range is a moving average (generally 14-days) of the True Ranges.

Wilder originally developed the ATR for commodities but the indicator can also be used
for Forex. Simply put, a currency experiencing a high level of volatility will have a higher.

 

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2. BOLLINGER BAND

Developed by John Bollinger, Bollinger Bands are charted by calculating a simple moving average of price, then creating two bands a specified number of standard deviations above and below the moving average. You can draw the simple moving average analysis on the same chart as the Bollinger Bands analysis, using the same interval. In addition, Bollinger Bands are usually plotted with a bar analysis so that the proximity of the bands to the prices can be easily observed.

The most common uses of Bollinger Bands are to:

- Identify overbought and oversold markets

An overbought or oversold market is one where the prices have risen or fallen too far and are therefore likely to retrace. Prices near the lower band signal an oversold market and prices near the upper band signal an overbought market. Overbought and oversold signals are most reliable in a non-trending market where prices are making a series of equal highs and lows.

 

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3. CCI – Commodity Channel Index

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was originated by Donald Lambert in 1980. It is based on the assumption that a perfectly cyclical commodity price approximates a sine wave. Designed to be used with instruments, which have seasonal or cyclical tendencies, Commodity Channel Index is not used to calculate cycle lengths but rather to indicate that a cycle trend is beginning.

The most common uses of Commodity Channel Index are to:

- Indicate breakouts

This is Lambert’s original interpretation, buying when the Commodity Channel Index moved above +100 and selling when the Commodity Channel Index went below -100. Lambert would exit the trade once the Commodity Channel Index moved back within the -100 to +100 bands. The assumption with this use of Commodity Channel Index is that once an instrument breaks +100 or -100 it has begun to trend.

 

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4. Linear Regression

Linear regression is a statistical tool used to measure trends. Linear regression uses the least squares method to plot the line. The linear regression line is a straight line extending through the prices.

The most common use of Linear Regression is:

- To trade in the direction of the linear regression line. Colby and Meyers found that trading in this manner provided good results using a 66-week figure. The only drawback was a large draw down in relation to the profitable trades.

 

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5. MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD as it is more commonly known, was developed by Gerald Appel to trade 26 and 12-week cycles in the stock market. MACD is a type of oscillator that can measure market momentum as well as follow or indicate the trend.

MACD consists of two lines, the MACD Line and the Signal Line. The MACD Line measures the difference between a short Exponential Moving Average and a long Exponential Moving Average. The Signal Line is an Exponential Moving Average of the MACD Line. MACD oscillates above and below a zero line without upper and lower boundaries.

There is another form of MACD, which displays the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line as a histogram.

MACD Forest displays the positive and negative difference between the two lines found in an MACD graph (the MACD Line and the Signal Line) as a histogram above and below a zero line.

The default periods are the same as the periods used by Appel. Remember that Appel used 26 and 12 because he observed weekly cycles of similar length in the US stock market. You may wish to change the parameters to match another cycle period you have observed.

The most common uses of MACD are to:

- Generate buy and sell signals

Signals are generated when the MACD Line and the Signal Line cross. A buy signal occurs when the MACD Line crosses from below to above the Signal Line, the further below the zero line that this occurs the stronger the signal. A sell signal occurs when the MACD Line crosses from above to below the Signal Line, the further above the zero line that this occurs the stronger the signal.

 

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6. Momentum

Momentum is an oscillator that measures the rate at which prices are changing over the Observation Period. It measures whether prices are rising or falling at an increasing or decreasing rate. The Momentum calculation subtracts the current price from the price a set number of periods
ago. This positive or negative difference is plotted about a zero line.

The most common uses of Momentum are to:

- Indicate overbought and oversold conditions

An overbought or oversold market is one where the prices have risen or fallen too far and are therefore likely to retrace. If the Momentum line moves to a very high value above the zero line, this is a sign of an overbought market. If the Momentum line moves to a very low value below the zero line this is a sign of an oversold market.
Overbought and oversold signals are most reliable in a non-trending market where prices are making a series of equal highs and lows.

 

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7. MOVING AVERAGE

A Moving Average is a moving mean of data. In other words, Moving Averages perform a mathematical function where data within a selected period is averaged and the average ‘moves’ as new data is included in the calculation while older data is removed or lessened. Moving Averages essentially smooth data by removing ‘noise’. This smoothing of data makes Moving Averages popular tools in identifying price trends and trend reversals.
The differences between the three types of moving averages lie in the way that they are calculated and whether they look at all the data available or only the data within a selected period. This means that each type of moving average has its own characteristics, for example how
quickly each will respond to changes in the underlying price

The second method uses two Moving Averages, one with a shorter observation period than the other. Buy and sell signals are generated when the short moving average crosses over the long moving average. For example if the short moving average crosses above the long moving average a buy signal is generated; a sell signal is generated when the short Moving Average
crosses below the long Moving Average.

 

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8. PARABOLIC TIME PRICE - SAR


Parabolic Time Price is a system that always has a position in the market, either long or short. You would close out the current position and enter a reverse position when the price crosses the current Stop And Reverse (SAR) point. The SAR points resemble a parabolic curve as they begin to tighten and close in on prices once prices begin to trend. This explains the name - Parabolic Time Price.

Parabolic Time Price is usually charted with a bar analysis so that the stop and reverse points are easily identified. If you are long, the SAR points will be below the prices and the signal to go short will be when prices cross the current SAR point from above. If you are short, the SAR points will be above the prices and the signal to go long will be when prices cross the current
SAR point from below.
When a new position is entered the SAR points will be positioned far enough away from the prices to permit some contra-trend price movement. As the market begins to trend the SAR points will move with prices and progressively tighten as the trend continues. This is accomplished by the use of an acceleration factor that increases up to a given limit each time a
new extreme in the direction of the trend is reached.


The most common uses of Parabolic Time Price are:

- As a Stop And Reverse system

Signals to stop out of the current position and enter a reverse position are when prices cross the current SAR point. For example if the SAR points are below prices you would be long with an order to close out the current long position and enter a short position at that period’s SAR point. Once you are stopped into a short position the SAR points will be above prices and the
current period’s SAR point will be the level at which you will be stopped out of your short position and enter a long position.

When applied in its original form Parabolic Time Price is a system that is always in the market. In order for this technique to be successful the underlying market needs to be trending strongly.
If Parabolic Time Price is applied in a non-trending market then it is likely that losses will result because the buy signals will occur at the top of the range and the sell signals at the bottom of the range.

 

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9. ROC – Rate of Change

Rate of Change is an oscillator that measures how fast the momentum of the market is changing over the Observation Period. Rate of Change is very similar to Momentum in that it compares the current price with the price a specified number of periods ago, however Rate of Change is calculated differently. Where Momentum subtracts the current price from the price a
specified number of periods ago, Rate of Change divides the current price by the price a specified number of periods ago and then multiplies the result by 100.

The most common uses of Rate of Change are to:

- Indicate overbought and oversold conditions

An overbought or oversold market is one where the prices have risen or fallen too far and are therefore likely to retrace. If the Rate of Change line moves to a very high value above the 100 line, this is a sign of an overbought market. If the Rate of Change line moves to a very low value below the 100 line, this is a sign of an oversold market. Overbought and oversold signals are most reliable in a non-trending market where prices are making a series of equal highs and lows.

 

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10. RSI – Relative Strength Index


Developed by J. Welles Wilder and introduced in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. RSI calculates the difference in values between the closes over the Observation Period. These values are averaged, with an up average being calculated for periods with higher closes and a down-average being calculated for periods with lower closes. The up average is divided by the down average to create the Relative Strength. Finally, the Relative Strength is put into the Relative Strength Index formula to produce an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100.

By calculating the RSI in this way Wilder was able to overcome two problems he had encountered with other momentum oscillators. Firstly, the RSI should avoid some of the erratic movements common to other momentum oscillators by smoothing the points used to calculate the oscillator. Secondly, the Y Axis scale for all instruments should be the same, 0 to 100. This would enable comparison between instruments and for objective levels to be used for overbought and oversold readings.


The most common uses of RSI are to:

- Indicate overbought and oversold conditions

An overbought or oversold market is one where prices have risen or fallen too far and are therefore likely to retrace. If the RSI is above 70 then the market is considered to be overbought, and an RSI value below 30
indicates that the market is oversold. 80 and 20 can also be used to indicate overbought and oversold levels. Overbought and oversold signals are most reliable in a non-trending market where prices are making a series of equal highs and lows.

 

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11. Slow Stochastic

Stochastics are an oscillator developed by George Lane and are based on the following observation:

As prices increase - closing prices tend to be closer to the upper end of the price range As prices decrease - closing prices tend to be closer to the lower end of the price range Slow Stochastics are based on Fast Stochastics but provide a slower, smoother response to price movements.
Slow Stochastic consist of two lines, %K and %D:
- The %K line in Slow Stochastic is the same as the %D line in Fast Stochastic.
- The %D line in Slow Stochastic is a Simple Moving Average of %K Slow Stochastic. This line is smoother than the %K and provides the signals for an overbought / oversold market.

Slow Stochastics are the more commonly used of the two Stochastic types - Fast and Slow. This is because Slow Stochastics are smoother and are less likely to give false signals.

The most common uses of Stochastics are to:

- Indicate overbought and oversold conditions

An overbought or oversold market is one where the prices have risen or fallen too far and are therefore likely to retrace. If the %D line is above 80% then the close is near the top end of the range of the observation period, while a reading below 20% means that the close is near the bottom end of the range of the observation period. Generally the area above 80 is considered overbought, while the area below 20 is oversold. The specified overbought/oversold ranges vary. Other commonly used ranges include 75-25, 70-30 and 85-15.

Overbought and oversold signals are most reliable in a non-trending market where prices are making a series of equal highs and lows. If the market is trending, then signals in the direction of the trend are likely to be more reliable.